碳酸锂周报2025/9/8-20250909
Zi Jin Tian Feng Qi Huo·2025-09-09 07:13
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current fundamentals have no trend - driving force. The supply output remains stable with the increase in the spodumene operation rate and the launch of new production lines, while the demand continues to grow month - on - month. The inventory pressure is relatively limited from the perspective of the inventory - to - sales ratio. The market is still sensitive to the uncertainty of the mining end, resulting in continuous price fluctuations. It is recommended to operate with a light position in the short term and wait for the actual processing results of the mining end to be determined for pricing [4][6]. - The spot price of lithium carbonate is bullish. Last week, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 6,850 yuan/ton to 74,800 yuan/ton [4]. - The monthly spread is neutral with no new driving factors [4]. - The available inventory of lithium ore at ports is bearish. As of September 5, the total inventory of domestic main - port traders and warehouses for sale decreased by 12,000 tons to 93,000 tons compared with August 29 [4]. - The import price of lithium ore is bullish. Last week, the CIF prices of Australian and Brazilian spodumene concentrates decreased by 45 US dollars/ton to 850 US dollars/ton respectively [4]. - The domestic price of lithium ore is bullish. Last week, the price of domestic spodumene concentrate with 5% - 5.5% decreased by 360 yuan/ton, and the price of domestic lepidolite concentrate with 2.0% - 2.5% decreased by 110 yuan/ton [4]. - The production of lithium carbonate is bearish. Last week, the domestic lithium carbonate production increased by 389 tons to 19,419 tons [4]. - The cost of lithium carbonate is bullish. Last week, the production cost of externally purchased spodumene concentrate decreased by 1,440 yuan/ton to 75,293 yuan/ton, and the production cost of externally purchased lepidolite decreased by 2,539 yuan/ton to 78,868 yuan/ton [4]. - The inventory (including warehouse receipts) of lithium carbonate is bullish. As of September 4, the total inventory of lithium carbonate (including warehouse receipts) decreased by 1,044 tons to 140,092 tons. The inventories of smelters, downstream, and other lithium carbonate decreased by 3,861 tons, increased by 2,407 tons, and increased by 410 tons respectively to 39,475 tons, 55,207 tons, and 45,410 tons. As of September 5, the registered warehouse receipts totaled 36,631 tons, an increase of 6,744 tons compared with August 29 [4]. - The profit of ternary materials is neutral. From August 28 to September 4, the production profit of 523 - type ternary materials increased by 5,288 yuan/ton to - 9,199 yuan/ton, and the production profit of 811 - type increased by 4,730 yuan/ton to - 277 yuan/ton [4]. - The capacity utilization rate of ternary materials is bullish. Last week, the operation rate of ternary materials increased by 0 percentage points to 50.97% [4]. - The inventory of ternary materials is bearish. As of September 4, the weekly inventory of ternary materials decreased by 188 tons to 17,644 tons [4]. - The inventory of lithium iron phosphate is bearish. As of September 4, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate increased by 263 tons to 94,756 tons [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Price - The futures price fluctuated widely. The main LC2511 contract opened at 77,000 yuan/ton, closed at 74,260 yuan/ton, with a high of 77,420 yuan/ton and a low of 71,120 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 3.78% [13]. - The spot price increased significantly week - on - week. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 6,850 yuan/ton. The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained flat at 2,250 yuan/ton, and the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate increased by 3,550 yuan/ton to 800 yuan/ton [20]. 3.2 Lithium Ore - The domestic spot price and import price of lithium ore decreased. The average prices of domestic spodumene concentrates with 3% - 4%, 4% - 5%, and 5% - 5.5% decreased by 325, 345, and 360 yuan/ton to 3,265, 4,845, and 6,090 yuan/ton respectively. The average prices of domestic lepidolite concentrates with 1.5% - 2.0% and 2.0% - 2.5% decreased by 92.5 and 110 yuan/ton to 1,157.5 and 1,865 yuan/ton respectively. The CIF prices of imported spodumene ores with 1.2% - 1.5%, 2% - 2.5%, and 3% - 4% decreased by 2.5, 4, and 6 US dollars/ton respectively. The CIF prices of Australian and Brazilian spodumene concentrates decreased by 45 US dollars/ton to 850 US dollars/ton respectively [25]. - The available inventory of lithium ore at ports decreased week - on - week. As of September 5, the total inventory of domestic main - port traders and warehouses for sale decreased by 12,000 tons to 93,000 tons. The spot inventory of domestic lithium ore traders in major ports decreased by 12,000 tons to 83,000 tons, and the inventory for sale in domestic warehouses (excluding factory raw material inventory) remained unchanged at 10,000 tons. As of August 2025, the raw material inventory of lithium salt plants totaled 100,602 tons, an increase of 1,217 tons (converted to LCE) [32]. 3.3 Mid - stream (Lithium Carbonate Production) - Weekly production: Last week, the domestic lithium carbonate production increased by 389 tons to 19,419 tons. The production of lithium carbonate from spodumene, lepidolite, and salt lakes increased by 160, 100, and 78 tons to 12,409, 2,600, and 2,593 tons respectively. In different regions, the weekly production in Qinghai, Jiangxi, and Sichuan increased by 50, decreased by 5, and increased by 190 tons to 2,660, 6,255, and 4,730 tons respectively. The weekly operation rate increased by 0.5 percentage points to 48.1% [39]. - Monthly production: In September 2025, the production is expected to increase by 1,490 tons to 86,730 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.7%. The production of lithium carbonate from spodumene, lepidolite, salt lakes, and recycling is expected to increase by 3,920, decrease by 2,380, decrease by 410, and increase by 360 tons to 57,250, 11,320, 10,510, and 7,650 tons respectively. In August, the production reached 85,240 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2%, slightly higher than the initial expectation [39]. - Production cost and profit: The production cost of externally purchased spodumene concentrate (Li₂O:6%) decreased by 1,440 yuan/ton to 75,293 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 3,404 yuan/ton to - 1,625 yuan/ton. The production cost of externally purchased lepidolite concentrate (Li₂O:2.5%) decreased by 2,539 yuan/ton to 78,868 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 2,228 yuan/ton to - 7,201 yuan/ton. Similar cost and profit changes occurred for other raw materials [44]. - Inventory: As of September 4, the total inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 1,044 tons to 140,092 tons. The inventories of smelters, downstream, and other lithium carbonate decreased by 3,861 tons, increased by 2,407 tons, and increased by 410 tons respectively. As of September 5, the registered warehouse receipts totaled 36,631 tons, an increase of 6,744 tons compared with August 29 [48]. 3.4 Cathode Materials - Ternary materials: Last week, the prices of different ternary material products fluctuated between - 650 yuan/ton and + 50 yuan/ton. The production in September is expected to reach 72,330 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5%. In August, the production reached 73,440 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4,800 tons or 7%, slightly higher than the initial expectation. As of September 4, the weekly inventory decreased by 188 tons to 17,644 tons. From August 28 to September 4, the production profit of 523 - type ternary materials increased by 5,288 yuan/ton to - 9,199 yuan/ton, and the production profit of 811 - type increased by 4,730 yuan/ton to - 277 yuan/ton [61]. - Lithium iron phosphate: Last week, the prices of power - type, low - end, and mid - high - end lithium iron phosphate decreased by 1,185, 1,140, and 1,185 yuan/ton respectively. As of September 4, the inventory increased by 263 tons to 94,756 tons. The production in September is expected to reach 335,250 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6%. In August, the production reached 316,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25,700 tons or 9%, higher than the initial expectation [63]. - Cobalt acid lithium: The production in September is expected to reach 12,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1%. In August, the production reached 12,350 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.8%, significantly higher than the initial expectation [71]. - Manganese acid lithium: The production in September is expected to reach 11,887 tons, a month - on - month increase of 650 tons or 6%. In August, the production reached 11,237 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 433 tons or - 4% [71]. 3.5 Batteries - Production: In August, the total domestic battery production reached 160.35 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 16.34 GWh. The production of ternary batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries reached 32.12 GWh and 123.01 GWh respectively, a month - on - month increase of 0.95 GWh and 15.13 GWh respectively. In September, the total battery production is expected to reach 168.39 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 8.04 GWh. The production of ternary batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries is expected to reach 32.75 GWh and 130.12 GWh respectively, a month - on - month increase of 0.63 GWh and 7.11 GWh respectively [76]. - Inventory and inventory - to - sales ratio: The total inventory of domestic battery cells decreased. As of July 2025, the inventories of power and energy - storage batteries were 166.9 GWh and 44.6 GWh respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4 GWh and 4.1 GWh respectively. In July 2025, the inventory - to - sales ratio of energy - storage batteries decreased to 0.92 months [79].