有色金属周报：8月非农不及预期，降息预期提升-20250909

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2]. Core Viewpoints - The report expresses a positive outlook on precious metals due to the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve, with gold prices expected to rise as the global status of the US dollar weakens [4]. - Industrial metal prices show mixed trends, with a significant infrastructure project in Tibet expected to boost overall demand and metal prices [4]. - The report highlights the potential for long-term growth in precious metals and recommends specific companies such as Shandong Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, and Zijin Mining [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review 1.1 Precious Metals - The report notes a 4% increase in Shanghai gold prices during the week of September 1-5, driven by disappointing US non-farm payroll data [4]. - The August non-farm payrolls increased by only 22,000, significantly below the expected 75,000, leading to heightened expectations for interest rate cuts [4]. 1.2 Industrial Metals - Prices for copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, and nickel changed by 1.5%, -0.3%, -0.1%, -0.1%, -0.1%, and 0.3% respectively [26]. - A major hydropower project in Tibet, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to stimulate demand for industrial metals [4]. 1.3 Minor Metals - Prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide decreased, while tungsten concentrate prices increased [4]. - The report anticipates steady growth in tungsten demand due to a recovery in manufacturing [4]. 1.4 Energy Metals - Lithium concentrate prices fell, while cobalt and nickel product prices mostly increased [4]. - The report emphasizes the need to monitor future demand growth for energy metals [4]. 2. Market Data - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.18%, while the non-ferrous metals sector rose by 2.12% [34]. - The report provides detailed price changes for various metals, indicating a mixed performance across different categories [34]. 3. Important Events Review - The report highlights the weak US employment data for August, which has led to a 100% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [40].