2025年8月进出口数据点评：我国对非美出口的驱动力是什么？

Export Performance - In August 2025, China's exports totaled $321.81 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, which is below the expected 5.9% and a decrease of 2.8 percentage points from the previous month[1][2][3] - Exports to ASEAN, EU, and Africa grew by 22.5%, 10.4%, and 25.9% respectively, while exports to the US fell by 33.1%[4][3][2] - High-tech products saw an export growth rate of 8.9%, with integrated circuits and automobiles growing by 32.8% and 17.3% respectively[14][13][2] Import Trends - Imports in August 2025 reached $219.48 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, lower than the expected 3.3%[1][16] - The demand for high-end manufacturing products remains strong, with imports of machine tools and integrated circuits increasing by 5.2% and 8.4% respectively[16][2] - Overall, the manufacturing production index rose to 50.8%, but the new orders index remained below the threshold at 49.5%, indicating persistent demand issues[16][2] Future Outlook - The implementation of the "new reciprocal tariffs" by the US is expected to slow global trade growth, with the WTO predicting a mere 0.9% increase in global goods trade for 2025[20][21] - Despite the global trade slowdown, China is expected to maintain export resilience by expanding its market share in non-US regions, driven by domestic demand and competitive product advantages[21][20] - The acceleration of China's outbound production capacity is anticipated to boost exports of intermediate and capital goods, particularly to ASEAN countries[21][20]