白糖四季报：增产周期下压制明显

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the sugar industry is neutral. The potential shortfall in sugar production in Brazil's Centre - South region is offset by the significant downward pressure on raw sugar prices due to the global sugar production surplus cycle. [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The sugar market is in a range - bound pattern. After Brazil's sugar production becomes clearer, prices have lifted temporarily due to India's lower - than - expected production increase. The market is currently in the process of finding a bottom, with the new sugar cost providing support at the lower end and the difference between the expected and actual production increase setting the upper limit. [3][6] - In the international market, the 2025/26 sugarcane crushing season in Brazil's Centre - South region is expected to yield 4000 - 4060 million tons, a slight downward adjustment. India is expected to increase production to 3500 million tons in the 2025/26 season, and Thailand will maintain a slight production increase. [3][27] - In the domestic market, as of the end of July 2025, the cumulative sugar sales in China reached 955 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 130 million tons (15.7%), and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 85.6%, 2.7 percentage points faster than the same period last year. The sugar industrial inventory in July was 161 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10 million tons (5.8%). [3] - The profit margin for out - of - quota sugar imports has opened up, leading to a surge in sugar imports from July to September. The control on syrup imports has been partially relaxed, and it is expected that syrup imports will increase in the future. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Foreign Production - Brazil: The market initially had a high - yield expectation of 4200 - 4600 million tons for Brazil. Although the crushing process was delayed by heavy rain, the high - yield expectation continued to suppress the market. However, various institutions have started to lower their forecasts for Brazil's final sugar production. In the 2025/26 season, the expected sugar production in Brazil's Centre - South region is 4000 - 4060 million tons, a slight decrease. In the first half of August, the sugar production in Brazil's Centre - South region was 340.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.07%. The cumulative sugar production from the beginning of the season to the first half of August was 1565.5 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.22%. [3][6][18] - India: The Indian Sugar Mills Association's initial estimate is that the raw sugar production will be close to 3500 million tons. After deducting the amount used for ethanol production (400 - 450 million tons), the net sugar production will be between 3050 - 3100 million tons. [43] - Thailand: Hedgepoint Global Markets revised the forecast for Thailand's sugarcane crushing volume in the 2025/26 season to 100 million tons, mainly due to favorable weather conditions. Thailand's production increase expectation remains largely unchanged, pending verification after the start of the crushing season. [47] Domestic Production and Sales - As of the end of July 2025, the cumulative sugar sales in China reached 955 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 130 million tons (15.7%), and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 85.6%, 2.7 percentage points faster than the same period last year. However, from July to August, the sales of Guangxi sugar slowed down significantly due to the impact of imported sugar. [3][83] Import Profit - The profit margin for out - of - quota sugar imports has opened up, and it is expected that there will be a large - scale influx of imported sugar from July to September. The control on syrup imports has been partially relaxed, and it is expected that syrup imports will increase in the future. China is expected to import about 80 million tons of sugar in September, a record high for the year. As the domestic - foreign positive spread materializes, the profit margin for out - of - quota imports is expected to narrow and eventually close in the fourth quarter. [3][63] Overall Inventory - In July, the sugar industrial inventory was 161 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10 million tons (5.8%), showing a slightly positive trend. [3] Alcohol - to - Gasoline Ratio - The alcohol - to - gasoline ratio has slightly increased to 0.6737, indicating a slight advantage for ethanol, approaching the equilibrium point. [3] Raw - Refined Sugar Price Spread - The raw - refined sugar price spread is at $120 per ton, indicating normal demand for raw sugar. [3] Market Trends - The raw sugar market is in the process of finding a bottom. The high - yield expectation for Brazil has been suppressing the market, but as the production situation becomes clearer, the price has shown a temporary upward adjustment. The domestic sugar market has been strong due to good production and sales in the early stage, but the price has declined since July due to the increase in imports. [6][9] - In terms of price spreads, the basis has slightly widened due to the recent rapid decline in the futures price. The 9 - 1 spread ended in a reverse spread as expected, and the 1 - 5 spread is currently stable but may turn into a reverse spread in the future. [92]