供强需弱格局下，胶价短期上涨空间或有限

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, natural rubber may show a range - bound oscillation. The supply of glue raw materials is tight, which supports the bottom of rubber prices, and tire companies still have the enthusiasm to replenish stocks at low prices due to rigid demand and pre - holiday stockpiling. However, the rapid decline in the operating rate of tire companies last week and the high finished - product inventory of semi - steel tire enterprises may limit the short - term upward space of rubber prices. The impact of weather in production areas on natural rubber output should be continuously monitored in the future [2][20] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In August, rubber prices fluctuated and rebounded, and last week, the price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber RU futures accelerated its rise and reached a new high since June. The rebound of synthetic rubber BR and No. 20 rubber NR was slightly weaker. In August, there was more rainfall in domestic natural rubber production areas, affecting tapping operations. Last week, the rainfall in Thai production areas decreased, but some areas were still affected by rain. In July 2025, the heavy - truck market sold 84,900 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 46%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market in China were 624,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11%, with a net increase of about 61,000 vehicles [3] 2. Tight Supply of Upstream Glue Raw Materials - In Hainan, recent heavy rainfall affected tapping, with the daily glue output of the whole island less than 500 tons, and some factories raised prices to buy raw materials. In Yunnan, the daily glue volume was about 3,500 tons recently, and some areas were affected by rainfall. In Thailand, the overall weather improved, but some areas were still affected by rain. In 2025, it is predicted that the global natural rubber output will increase by 0.5% year - on - year to 14.892 billion tons, and the consumption will increase by 1.3% year - on - year to 15.565 billion tons. From January to July 2025, the rubber export volume of Cote d'Ivoire increased by 14.3% year - on - year [3][4][7] 3. Continuous Decline in Rubber Inventory at Qingdao Port - In July 2025, China imported 634,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. From January to July, the total import was 4.709 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.8%. As of last Thursday, the total inventory of natural rubber futures warehouse receipts decreased by 12,320 tons week - on - week, and that of No. 20 rubber futures warehouse receipts increased by 706 tons week - on - week. As of the week of August 29, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased by 0.75% week - on - week [9][11] 4. Rapid Decline in the Operating Rate of Downstream Tire Enterprises and High Finished - Product Inventory of Semi - Steel Tires - As of the week of September 4, the operating rate of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 58.7%, a decrease of 4.08% from the previous week and 0.22% from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 69.07%, a decrease of 5.5% from the previous week and 9.6% from the same period last year. In July 2025, the output of rubber tire casings in China decreased by 7.3% year - on - year. From January to July, the cumulative output increased by 0.7% year - on - year. From January to July, the export volume of rubber tires in China increased by 5.4% year - on - year [13][16] 5. Future Outlook - The supply side shows a seasonal increase in natural rubber output, but the growth of new rubber output is slow. The demand side has support from rigid demand and pre - holiday stockpiling. However, the rapid decline in the operating rate of tire enterprises and the high inventory of semi - steel tire enterprises limit the short - term upward space of rubber prices. In the short term, natural rubber may show a range - bound oscillation [20]