生猪日报-20250909

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View The report predicts that the hog price will experience a period of volatile adjustment. The supply of hogs is expected to increase gradually until December, which will limit significant price increases. However, the price difference between 150Kg hogs and standard hogs is expected to strengthen seasonally, providing some support to the hog price. If the price remains weak, a negative cycle may form, but the hog price may rebound at the end of the year [4]. Summary by Section Market Dynamics - On September 8, the registered hog warehouse receipts were 430 lots [2]. - The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to the extent of weight reduction of hogs [2]. - The main hog contract (LH2511) reduced its positions by 589 lots today, with a position of approximately 77,400 lots. The highest price was 13,385 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,145 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,305 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of hogs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. Based on piglet data, the hog slaughter volume is expected to increase overall in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. The consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3]. - Historically, the price difference between fat and standard hogs may strengthen [3]. - The bearish logic in the market includes slow and difficult weight reduction by farmers, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited demand support for hog prices as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The bullish logic includes weight reduction by farmers benefiting the future market, improved consumption after the weather cools down, and limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume [3]. Strategy Suggestion - The view is that the market will experience volatile adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that hog slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, limiting significant price increases; the price difference between 150Kg hogs and standard hogs is expected to strengthen seasonally, which will weaken farmers' willingness to reduce weight and support the price; if the price remains weak, a negative cycle may form, and if so, the hog price may rebound at the end of the year, and an inverse spread of the 11 - 01 contract can be considered (for reference only) [4]. Market Overview - The national average hog slaughter price on September 8 was 13.48 yuan/kg, down 0.96% from September 5. The prices in Henan and Sichuan also decreased [6]. - Among the futures prices, the prices of some contracts increased slightly, while others remained unchanged or decreased slightly. The main contract (11 - contract) closed at 13,305 yuan/ton, down 0.15% [6]. - The main basis in Henan decreased by 32.21% to 505 yuan/ton [6]. Key Data Tracking - The report provides data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis in the Henan region of the main hog contract, and the price differences between different contracts [14].