加速的降息交易

Market Performance - Global stock markets showed mixed performance last week, with the Mexican MXX index leading gains[3] - The Dow Jones fell by 0.3%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rose by 1.1% and 0.3% respectively[3] - In Europe, the DAX index dropped by 1.3%, and the CAC40 fell by 0.4%, while the FTSE 100 slightly increased by 0.2%[3] - The Hang Seng index in Asia rose by 1.4%, and the SENSEX30 in India increased by 1.1%[3] Employment Data - U.S. non-farm payrolls added only 22,000 jobs in August, significantly below the expected 75,000 and prior value of 79,000[3] - The unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.3%[3] - Job losses were noted in mining, construction, manufacturing, wholesale, information, and professional services, while healthcare and transportation showed slower growth[3] Federal Reserve Actions - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is 89%, while a 50 basis point cut is at 11%[3] - There is a 79% chance of a total reduction of 75 basis points by the end of the year[3] - The market is expected to focus on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 16-17 for further rate decisions[3] Investment Strategy - Short-term strategies should focus on the rhythm of rate cuts, particularly in U.S. Treasuries, XBI, and gold[3] - Long-term investments should consider the anticipated recovery in manufacturing and tightening commodity supply post-summer[3] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected inflation rebounds, weaker-than-expected global economic conditions, and geopolitical tensions escalating beyond expectations[3]