Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Crude oil prices may maintain wide - range fluctuations in the short term, with SC performing stronger than foreign markets. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the actual implementation rate of the OPEC+ compensation plan and whether India's import bottlenecks can be alleviated. If geopolitical risks intensify, oil prices may break through the current oscillation range [5] - International oil prices (WTI and Brent) may remain stable due to the offset between OPEC+ production cuts and geopolitical factors, while the rising price and expanding spread of SC crude oil may be affected by domestic policies, exchange rates, or strong Asian market demand [65] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary a. Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes - On September 8, the SC crude oil main contract was at 490.5 yuan/barrel, up 1.76% from the previous five days, showing a "V - shaped" oscillation within the week. The SC - Brent spread widened from 1.86 dollars/barrel to 3.1 dollars/barrel, a 66.67% increase. The WTI - Brent spread remained unchanged at 3.7 dollars/barrel [2] - Fuel oil warehouse receipts decreased significantly (by 15,000 tons), suggesting increased refinery start - up demand. SC crude oil warehouse receipts remained at 5.721 million barrels, indicating stable delivery storage capacity but tight near - term supply [3] b. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - Supply: OPEC+ compensation production cuts are ongoing, with Kazakhstan, Iraq, and Russia needing to make up a total capacity gap of 4.779 million barrels per day by 2026. Saudi Arabia raised the official selling price of Arab Light crude oil to Asia in October. The EU may impose new sanctions on Russia, and there are port restrictions in Spain [4] - Demand: India's short - term demand growth is limited by logistics bottlenecks. China's gasoline and diesel demand is in a plateau, but the demand for naphtha, LPG, and jet fuel supports refinery start - up. India's refinery capacity expansion plan will drive long - term demand, but high current inventories suppress short - term purchases [4] - Inventory: US and OECD commercial crude oil inventories have not been updated. The decline in fuel oil warehouse receipts may reflect refinery restocking. China's strategic petroleum reserve filling rate remains high, indirectly suppressing commercial inventory fluctuations [4] c. Price Trend Judgment - Crude oil prices may maintain wide - range fluctuations in the short term, with SC performing stronger than foreign markets. The SC - Brent premium may continue, while WTI is restricted by abundant North American supply. In the medium term, the actual implementation rate of the OPEC+ compensation plan and the alleviation of India's import bottlenecks need attention [5] 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring a. Crude Oil - Futures prices: SC rose 1.76% to 490.5 yuan/barrel, WTI fell 0.26% to 61.81 dollars/barrel, and Brent rose 0.87% to 66.24 dollars/barrel [7] - Spot prices: OPEC's basket price remained unchanged, Brent rose 2.00%, Oman rose 0.12%, etc [7] - Spreads: SC - Brent, SC - WTI, and Brent - WTI spreads all increased, and the SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread soared 270.97% [7] - Other assets: The US dollar index fell 0.29%, the S&P 500 rose 0.21%, etc [7] - Inventory: US commercial crude oil, Cushing, strategic reserve, and API inventories all increased to varying degrees [7] - Refinery operations: The US refinery weekly start - up rate decreased 0.32%, and the crude oil processing volume decreased 0.07% [7] b. Fuel Oil - Futures prices: FU rose 0.29% to 2,767 yuan/ton, LU rose 0.18% to 3,398 yuan/ton, etc [8] - Spot prices: IF0380 in Singapore rose 1.79%, IF0380 in Rotterdam fell 5.03%, etc [8] - Paper prices: High - sulfur 180 in Singapore (near - month) fell 0.14%, high - sulfur 380 in Singapore (near - month) rose 0.01% [8] - Spreads: Singapore's high - low sulfur spread was not updated, China's high - low sulfur spread fell 0.32%, etc [8] - Platts prices: Platts (380CST) fell 3.06%, Platts (180CST) fell 4.20% [8] - Inventory: Data on US distillates were not fully updated [8] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations a. Supply - OPEC+ requires some countries to compensate for over - production, with Kazakhstan, Iraq, and Russia having compensation plans. The compensation period is extended to 2026 [9][10] - India continues to purchase Russian crude oil, but logistics bottlenecks hinder procurement. India plans to increase refinery capacity by 25% in the next year [10] - Spain bans some fuel oil tankers supplying Israel from entering its ports [10] - OPEC+ will increase production from October, but at a slower pace [11] b. Demand - India will be the main driver of global oil demand growth in the next 10 years and is diversifying its crude oil supply [12] - China's gasoline and diesel demand has entered a stable period, and the growth in fuel demand comes from naphtha, LPG, and jet fuel [12] c. Inventory - India's high inventories lead to a slight decline in purchases [13] - On September 8, SC crude oil futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and fuel oil futures warehouse receipts decreased by 15,000 tons [13] - China's strategic petroleum reserve filling rate is expected to remain at a similar level in 2026 as in 2025 [13] d. Market Information - Saudi Arabia raises the official selling prices of Arab Light crude oil to the US, Northwest Europe, and Asia in October [14] - The EU is considering new sanctions against Russia to target its banking and oil trade [14] - The refined oil market may be very tight in 2026, with profit margins potentially increasing significantly [14] 4. Industry Chain Data Charts - The report provides charts on WTI, Brent first - line contract prices and spreads, SC and WTI spreads, US crude oil weekly production, etc [15][17][21]
欧美对俄制裁与OPEC持续增产博弈，油价宽幅震荡
Tong Hui Qi Huo·2025-09-09 08:15