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农林牧渔行业报告（2025.8.31-2025.9.5）：猪价低位震荡，产能调减政策效果有所显现
China Post Securities·2025-09-09 08:27

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The agricultural sector experienced a significant decline, with the agricultural index dropping by 1.32%, ranking 19th among 31 primary industries [12][15] - The pig price continues to weaken, with the average price as of September 7 being 13.64 CNY/kg, a decrease of 0.04 CNY/kg from the previous week, indicating a persistent oversupply pressure [4][19] - The government emphasizes capacity reduction policies to stabilize pig prices, with expectations that the effects will be more pronounced in the second half of 2026 [5][21] - The white feather chicken price has ended its phase of rising, with the price of chicken seedlings at 3.60 CNY per chick, down 0.2 CNY from the previous week [30] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural sector saw a notable decline, with the agricultural index down 1.32%, while the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 fell by 1.18% and 0.81%, respectively [12][15] 2. Livestock Industry Chain Tracking 2.1 Pigs: Prices Continue to Weaken - The average price of pigs is 13.64 CNY/kg, with a supply-demand imbalance leading to continued pressure on prices [4][19] - The average profit for self-bred pigs is approximately 53 CNY per head, while purchased piglets incur a loss of 126 CNY per head [19][24] - The government is enforcing capacity reduction policies, with a reported decrease in breeding stock by 0.80% in August [20] 2.2 White Feather Chicken: Seedling Prices End Phase of Increase - The price of white feather chicken seedlings is 3.60 CNY per chick, with a decrease in prices due to seasonal factors [30] - The update of grandparent generation chicks has decreased significantly, with a reduction of 17.66% compared to the previous year [30] 3. Planting Industry Chain Tracking - Sugar prices have adjusted to 5935 CNY/ton, down 30 CNY/ton [34] - The price of Brazilian soybeans has increased by 1.2% to 4021 CNY/ton [34] - Cotton prices have rebounded slightly to 15435 CNY/ton, up 0.78% [34] - Corn prices have slightly decreased to 2322 CNY/ton, down 4 CNY/ton [34]