航空运输行业专题报告：利好在积累，低位需重视

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The introduction of policies to expand service consumption is expected to stimulate incremental demand, and the civil aviation sector's efforts to combat "involution" are likely to promote a virtuous cycle of volume and price [1][2] - The expansion of visa-free policies is anticipated to further increase international flight volumes, with significant recovery observed in international passenger flights [3] - The industry is currently experiencing a weak balance between supply and demand, with expectations for ticket prices to show positive year-on-year growth in Q4 due to low base effects [4] - OPEC+ has decided to increase production, which may lead to a downward trend in oil prices, benefiting airlines by reducing fuel costs [5] Summary by Sections Policy and Demand - Policies aimed at expanding service consumption are set to be introduced in September, focusing on enhancing service supply capabilities and stimulating new consumption patterns [2] - The civil aviation authority is actively working to mitigate "involution" in the industry, promoting fair competition and adherence to pricing laws [1] International Travel - The scope of visa-free policies has been expanded, with Russia and South Korea implementing measures that are expected to boost international travel [3] - As of early September 2025, international passenger flights have recovered to approximately 85.1% of 2019 levels, with specific routes to Russia and South Korea showing even higher recovery rates [3] Supply and Pricing - The civil aviation sector is experiencing a weak balance between supply and demand, with supply and demand recovering to 117% and 116% of 2019 levels, respectively [4] - The average ticket price for domestic economy class is approximately 846 RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 6.4% [4] - Expectations for Q4 indicate that ticket prices may achieve year-on-year growth due to low base effects from the previous year [4] Cost and Profitability - OPEC+ has increased production, which is likely to lead to a decrease in oil prices, thus reducing airlines' fuel costs and potentially enhancing profitability [5] - The long-term outlook for the aviation industry suggests a tightening supply due to high aircraft retirement and leasing peaks, while demand is expected to grow steadily [7]