Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the futures price of lithium carbonate may shift to a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The supply side has structural support due to lithium mine shutdown events and process substitution, but the peak - season expectations on the demand side have not been fully realized, and the decline in spot prices restricts the basis repair space. The market may switch to a volatile pattern in the next one to two weeks, and attention should be paid to the material declaration progress of Jiangxi lithium mines [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Changes - The price of the main lithium carbonate futures contract rose slightly from 74,260 yuan/ton on September 5th to 74,800 yuan/ton on September 8th, with a gain of 0.73%. The basis weakened further from 440 yuan/ton to - 300 yuan/ton. The trading volume shrank by 2.45% to 782,387 lots, and the market activity decreased. The position of the main contract increased slightly by 135 lots to 364,137 lots, and both long and short sides showed strong wait - and - see sentiment [1] b. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - Supply side: The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate remained at 66.41%, but the supply structure was significantly differentiated. The proportion of lithium carbonate produced by spodumene process increased to over 60%, while that of lepidolite process decreased to 15%. The shutdown event of lithium mines in Yichun, Jiangxi continued to ferment, which might disrupt regional supply in the future, but it was not reflected in the capacity utilization rate data yet [2] - Demand side: The new energy vehicle industry chain entered the traditional peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". In August, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles increased by 9% month - on - month, and the wholesale volume increased by 23% year - on - year. However, the cathode material segment showed differentiation. The price of power - type lithium iron phosphate continued to decline to 33,895 yuan/ton, while the price of ternary materials increased slightly. The acceptance of high - price raw materials by downstream was still limited. The price of the cell segment was mainly stable, with the price of cobalt - acid lithium cells rising significantly by 5.04% due to raw material cost, but other types of cells had small fluctuations [2] - Inventory and warehouse receipts: The total inventory of lithium carbonate continued the downward trend, decreasing by 1,044 tons week - on - week to 140,092 tons, falling for four consecutive weeks, indicating a slight alleviation of the supply - demand contradiction [2] c. Market Summary - The lithium carbonate futures price may turn to a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term. The market may switch to a volatile pattern in the next one to two weeks, and attention should be paid to the material declaration progress of Jiangxi lithium mines [3] 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - The price of the main lithium carbonate futures contract rose from 74,260 yuan/ton on September 5th to 74,800 yuan/ton on September 8th, with a gain of 0.73%. The basis decreased from 440 yuan/ton to - 300 yuan/ton, a decline of 168.18%. The position of the main contract increased slightly by 0.04%, and the trading volume decreased by 2.45%. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.27%. The price of power - type lithium iron phosphate decreased by 0.10%, while the price of ternary materials increased slightly. The price of cobalt - acid lithium cells increased by 5.04%, and other types of cells had small fluctuations [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations a. Spot Market Quotations - On September 8th, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased by 160 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. The market presented a pattern of simultaneous growth in supply and demand in September, with the demand growth rate being faster, and it was expected to experience a stage of supply shortage [6] b. Downstream Consumption - According to the preliminary statistics of the Passenger Car Association, from August 1st to 31st, the retail sales of the national new energy passenger vehicle market were 1.079 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5% and a month - on - month increase of 9%. The wholesale volume was 1.292 million units, a year - on - year increase of 23% and a month - on - month increase of 9% [7] c. Industry News - The spot price of cobalt intermediates continued to be strong. Affected by the deferral policy in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the cobalt intermediates in China would still face raw material shortages in the future, and the price had an upward momentum. Since August 10th, the shutdown of Ningde Times' Jiangxi Yichun Jiaxiawo mining area has affected the entire industrial chain [8][9] 4. Industry Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including those on lithium carbonate futures main contracts and basis, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices, lithium concentrate prices, etc., with data sources from iFinD, SMM, Shanghai Iron and Steel Union, and the R & D department of Tonghui Futures [11][14][16]
碳酸锂日报：矿山材料申报接力潜在变数，碳酸锂持续反弹-20250909
Tong Hui Qi Huo·2025-09-09 08:33