聚酯链日报：成本拖累叠加弱需求，PX、TA修复空间受压制-20250909

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The repair space of PX and TA is constrained by cost drag and weak demand [1]. - The PTA and PX markets face challenges from supply - side pressures, weak demand, and potential inventory accumulation, while the polyester industry is expected to maintain a weak - balance pattern [2][3][4]. Group 3: Summary by Section 1. Daily Market Summary PTA & PX - On September 8, 2025, the PX主力合约 closed at 6762.0 yuan/ton, up 0.71% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 177.0 yuan/ton; the PTA主力合约 closed at 4690.0 yuan/ton, up 0.39%, with a basis of - 100.0 yuan/ton [2]. - The supply of PX and PTA is under pressure, with high - level operating rates and postponed maintenance plans. The falling crude oil prices weaken the cost support for PX and may suppress PTA production profits [2]. - The terminal textile demand has not shown a trend improvement. The polyester industry's开工 rate increase is limited, and there is a risk of negative feedback in the industrial chain. PTA factory inventory pressure may gradually build up [3]. Polyester - On September 8, 2025, the short - fiber主力合约 closed at 6358.0 yuan/ton, up 0.38% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6450.0 yuan/ton, up 15.0 yuan/ton, with a basis of 92.0 yuan/ton [4]. - The cost support from upstream raw materials is weakening, while the terminal restocking demand has marginally improved but remains below the peak - season threshold. There is a structural inventory contradiction, with short - fiber inventory much lower than that of long - filament products [4]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX: The主力合约 price increased by 0.71%, the成交 decreased by 11.65%, and the持仓 increased by 3.00%. The Chinese main port CFR remained unchanged, and the South Korean FOB increased by 0.37% [5]. - PTA: The主力合约 price increased by 0.39%, the成交 increased by 19.47%, and the持仓 increased by 0.41%. The Chinese main port CFR remained unchanged. The PTA基差 decreased by 21.95% [5]. - Short - fiber: The主力合约 price increased by 0.38%, the成交 decreased by 17.57%, and the持仓 increased by 1.74%. The spot price in the East China market increased by 0.23% [4][5]. - Other products: The prices of some products such as CFR Japan naphtha, ethylene glycol, and polyester chips remained unchanged, while the prices of some others like polyester bottle - chips increased slightly [5]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation Macroeconomic Dynamics - On September 8, Trump announced the final candidates for the Fed Chair, and the US Senate Republicans planned to modify rules to speed up the confirmation of Fed governors. Trump exempted metals like gold, tungsten, and uranium from global tariffs, and the PBOC continued to increase its gold holdings for the 10th consecutive month [7]. Supply - Demand (Demand) - On September 8, the total trading volume at the Light Textile City was 676.0 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 19.52% [8]. 4. Appendix: Inference Process - PX prices may be under pressure due to falling crude oil costs and sufficient supply. PTA may face supply - side pressure, and although demand has rebounded in the short term, inventory pressure may limit price increases [35][36][37].