Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term copper prices may remain in a high - level oscillation, but the upward pressure is becoming more apparent. Supply - side copper ore is abundant, but policy disturbances in recycled copper add cost support. Demand - side weakness in household appliances and photovoltaic demand suppresses restocking momentum. Macroeconomic factors, such as the U.S. non - farm payrolls data falling short of expectations and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, create a mixed impact on risk assets. Future price trends depend on the spot purchasing and restocking strength of domestic electrolytic copper and the outcome of the September interest rate meeting [6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - Main Contract and Basis: On September 8, the price of the SHFE copper main contract was 79,650 yuan/ton, a slight drop of 370 yuan from September 5. The premium of premium copper decreased from 285 yuan/ton on September 2 to 190 yuan/ton on September 8, and that of flat - water copper dropped from 75 yuan/ton to 60 yuan/ton. The LME spot discount continued to widen, with the 0 - 3 month discount expanding from 67.16 dollars/ton on September 2 to 68.04 dollars/ton [1] - Position and Trading Volume: On September 8, SHFE inventory decreased by 2,125 tons to 155,825 tons, and the destocking speed slowed in the past two weeks. LME inventory on September 8 was 18,926 tons, a slight decrease of 1 ton during the week, remaining in a low - level oscillation. COMEX inventory increased by 434 short tons to 305,779 short tons, and the rising overseas hidden inventory pressured copper prices [2] b. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - Supply Side: Copper concentrate supply remained loose. In August, China's copper ore imports increased by 7.2% year - on - year to 2.759 million physical tons, and the cumulative imports from January to August increased by 7.9% year - on - year. However, the import volume of refined copper decreased by 11.46% month - on - month to 425,000 tons. The adjustment of recycled copper policy led to an increase in the processing cost of brass strips, and the processing fee was raised to 1,500 yuan/ton [3] - Demand Side: The weak demand continued. In August, the operating rate of copper strips only increased by 0.25 percentage points month - on - month to 65.87%, 1.05 percentage points lower than market expectations. Weak orders in household appliances, photovoltaics and high copper prices suppressed procurement. The SMM survey showed that the operating rate of copper strips in September is expected to only slightly rise to 65.94% [4] - Inventory Side: The pressure of domestic visible inventory emerged. On September 8, the SMM copper inventory in major domestic regions increased by 0.63 million tons to 14.69 million tons due to concentrated arrival of imported goods. Although SHFE inventory decreased for two consecutive weeks, the decline rate narrowed to 1.35%, and inventory is expected to accumulate in the next two weeks. LME inventory remained at a historical low, but marginal destocking stagnated, and the pressure of hidden inventory in overseas markets shifted to visible inventory [5] c. Market Summary - Short - term copper prices may remain in a high - level oscillation, but the upward pressure is increasing. Supply - side cost support and demand - side weakness, along with mixed macro - factors, affect copper prices. Attention should be paid to domestic spot restocking and the September interest rate meeting results [6][7] 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - On September 8, the price of SMM 1 copper was 80,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan from September 5. The premium of premium copper decreased by 70 yuan to 190 yuan/ton, and that of flat - water copper dropped by 10 yuan to 60 yuan/ton. The LME (0 - 3) discount widened by 13 dollars/ton to - 81 dollars/ton. The SHFE price was 79,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 370 yuan from September 5, while the LME price was 9,907 dollars/ton, an increase of 42 dollars from September 5. LME inventory decreased by 1 ton to 18,926 tons, SHFE inventory decreased by 2,125 tons to 155,825 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 434 short tons to 305,779 short tons [8] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - As of September 8, SMM copper inventory in major domestic regions increased by 0.63 million tons to 14.69 million tons due to concentrated arrival of imported goods, and inventory is expected to increase slightly. In August, China imported 425,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, a 11.458% month - on - month decrease. China imported 2.759 million physical tons of copper ore and concentrates in August, a 7.2% year - on - year increase [9] - The adjustment of recycled copper policy led to an increase in the production cost of brass strip enterprises, and the processing fee in Jiangxi has risen to around 1,500 yuan/ton. In August, the operating rate of SMM copper strip enterprises was 65.87%, a 0.25 - percentage - point month - on - month increase but 1.05 percentage points lower than expected, affected by weak demand, high copper prices, and policy - related supply issues [10] 4. Price Trend Judgment - Considering supply increase, weak demand and macro - factors, copper prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the next one or two weeks, ranging between 78,500 - 80,500 yuan/ton [37]
铜日报：旺季去库力度略显不足，沪铜价格短期回归基本面-20250909
Tong Hui Qi Huo·2025-09-09 09:05