农化行业：2025年8月月度观察：际钾肥价格上行，磷肥出口量价齐升，草甘膦持续涨价-20250909

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural chemical industry [4][8]. Core Insights - The potassium fertilizer market is experiencing a tight supply-demand balance, with international prices on the rise. Domestic potassium chloride production is expected to decrease by 2.7% in 2024, while imports are projected to reach a historical high of 12.633 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.1% [1][22]. - The phosphorus chemical industry is expected to maintain a high price level due to the scarcity of resources and increasing demand from new applications such as lithium iron phosphate [2][52]. - The pesticide sector is entering a recovery phase as demand increases, driven by rising agricultural planting areas in South America and a bottoming out of prices after a prolonged decline [3][4]. Summary by Sections Potassium Fertilizer - The international potassium fertilizer prices are on an upward trend, supported by tight supply conditions. Domestic potassium chloride prices averaged 3,284 RMB/ton at the end of August, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.67% and a year-on-year increase of 35.87% [1][43]. - China's potassium chloride imports are heavily reliant on foreign sources, with over 60% of its demand met through imports. The domestic production is expected to be 5.5 million tons in 2024, down 2.7% from the previous year [22][25]. - The report highlights the importance of potassium in crop production, emphasizing its role in enhancing crop resilience and yield [14][19]. Phosphorus Chemical Industry - The report indicates that the price of phosphorus ore is expected to remain high due to declining ore grades and increasing extraction costs. The market price for 30% grade phosphorus ore has been stable at around 1,040 RMB/ton in Hubei and 970 RMB/ton in Yunnan [2][52]. - The domestic phosphorus ore supply is tightening, with a significant increase in demand from new energy materials, particularly lithium iron phosphate [2][52]. - The price gap between domestic and international phosphorus fertilizers is widening, benefiting companies with export quotas [3][50]. Pesticide Sector - The pesticide industry is expected to see a recovery as demand increases, particularly in South America, where planting areas are expanding. The report notes that the pesticide price index has been declining for over three years, but the current low prices may be nearing a bottom [3][4]. - The report recommends several companies in the pesticide sector, including Yangnong Chemical and Lier Chemical, as potential investment opportunities [4][8]. Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include focusing on potassium fertilizer companies like Yaqi International, which is expected to increase its production significantly in the coming years [4][49]. - In the phosphorus chemical sector, companies with rich phosphorus reserves such as Yuntianhua and Xingfa Group are highlighted as strong investment candidates [4][8]. - For the pesticide sector, Yangnong Chemical is recommended for its growth potential, supported by strategic projects [4][8].