有色日报：有色震荡运行，铝价偏强-20250909

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: The copper price today rose and then fell, with the open interest continuously decreasing. The main contract price of Shanghai copper once approached the 80,000 mark. On the macro - level, the non - farm payrolls data in the US last Friday was lower than expected, increasing the expectation of interest rate cuts, which is positive for the copper price, while concerns about economic downturn are negative. On the industrial level, the social inventory of electrolytic copper increased on Monday, putting pressure on the copper price. Short - term attention should be paid to the resistance at the 80,000 mark [5]. - Aluminum: The aluminum price showed an upward trend with increasing positions today. On the macro - level, the real estate sector's expectations have improved this week, and the prices of ferrous metal products and the stock market have risen, driving up the aluminum price. On the industrial level, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased on Monday, putting pressure on the aluminum price. Technically, attention should be paid to the resistance at the 20,800 mark [6]. - Nickel: The nickel price fluctuated weakly today, with little change in the open interest. On the macro - level, the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts is positive for the nickel price. On the industrial level, the nickel inventories in LME and SHFE are continuously rising, which is negative for the nickel price. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at the 120,000 mark [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Copper: Freeport announced that a large - scale wet ore material gushing accident occurred in a production area of the Grasberg underground caving mine in Central Papua Province, Indonesia, on the night of September 8th, Monday. Seven contractor employees were trapped, and all mining operations at the Grasberg mine were suspended. China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products in August 2025 were 425,000 tons, down from the previous month but a slight year - on - year increase of 2.4%. The cumulative imports from January to August were 3.536 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%. August is still the off - season for consumption, resulting in a decline in imports [9]. - Aluminum: As the US raises tariffs on imported aluminum, Canadian aluminum producers are exporting more aluminum for cans and auto parts to Europe. In the second quarter of 2025, the proportion of Canadian aluminum exports to the US dropped to 78% (95% in the first quarter), while the share of exports to Europe rose to 18% (0.2% in the first quarter) [10]. - Nickel: On September 9th, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 120,600 - 123,200 yuan/ton, with an average price of 121,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 600 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 2,100 - 2,300 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was in the range of - 100 - 200 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - Copper: The report provides charts on copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][17][14]. - Aluminum: The report includes charts on aluminum average premium, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina inventory, and aluminum bar inventory [24][29][25]. - Nickel: The report offers charts on nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [35][38][39].