黄金周报（2025.9.1-2025.9.7）：美国劳动力市场显著走弱，金价再创新高-20250909

Investment Rating - The report indicates a bullish outlook on gold prices due to weakening labor market conditions in the U.S. and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][4]. Core Viewpoints - The U.S. labor market has shown significant weakness, reinforcing market expectations for interest rate cuts, which has led to a substantial increase in gold prices [3][4]. - Gold prices are expected to continue rising in the upcoming week, driven by the anticipated release of U.S. inflation data and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [4]. Market Review - As of September 5, the Shanghai gold futures price rose by 3.88% to 815.60 CNY per gram, while COMEX gold futures increased by 3.52% to 3639.80 USD per ounce [3][6]. - The T+D gold spot price rose by 3.82% to 811.65 CNY per gram, and London gold spot price increased by 4.04% to 3586.00 USD per ounce [6]. - The international gold basis (spot-futures) rose significantly by 40.10 USD per ounce to -6.25 USD per ounce, while the Shanghai gold basis decreased by 1.45 CNY per gram to -2.75 CNY per gram [9]. Holding Analysis - Global SPDR gold ETF holdings increased significantly by 4.29 tons to 981.97 tons, indicating strong investor interest [16]. - The cumulative trading volume of domestic gold T+D rose sharply by 104.90% to 297,248 kg [16]. Macroeconomic Fundamentals - The U.S. labor market data has shown a decline, with August non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000, significantly below the expected 75,000 [26]. - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest in nearly four years, further supporting the case for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [26]. - The JOLTS job openings report indicated a drop to 7.181 million, the lowest in 10 months, reflecting a tightening labor market [25]. Federal Reserve Policy Tracking - There is a notable division among Federal Reserve officials regarding the timing and pace of interest rate cuts, with some advocating for immediate action while others suggest a more cautious approach [36][37].