玉米期货月报-20250909

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - New - season corn maintains a supply - loose pattern. Despite low port inventories supporting prices, downstream demand lacks significant growth, with the deep - processing industry in continuous losses and feed consumption being mainly rigid. Wheat substitution and policy auctions supplement supply, suppressing upward price movement. As wheat prices approach the policy bottom, its substitution effect on corn is expected to weaken, and some diverted demand may return to the corn market. Currently, with multiple factors at play, the market is in a critical game phase. In the short - term, after a staged rebound, corn prices are expected to decline again to test lower support, and attention should be paid to the performance at integer and cost support levels. If the decline is fully released in time and space, the market driving logic may change, and the new grain listing and downstream demand recovery need close monitoring [5][30]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Corn Market Structure - As of the end of August, the corn index price dropped to around 2150 yuan/ton and then rebounded technically due to oversold conditions, but the rebound is expected to be limited. After the rebound, the price may fall to the 2100 - 2150 yuan/ton support range and may even over - decline below 2100 yuan/ton. The listing volume of corn in North China is increasing, the scale of rotation grain out - storage is expanding, and imported substitutes are arriving. Downstream enterprises have sufficient inventories, and feed enterprises are reluctant to replenish stocks due to low breeding profits and substitution effects. The current futures price is higher than the new - season corn cost, and there is still downward pressure. It is advisable to watch for short - selling opportunities after the rebound [6]. - The overall futures - spot structure shows that 11 is at a premium to 01, and 01 is at a discount to 05 [7]. 3.2 Market行情Analysis - Supply - demand balance: The new - season corn market shows "slightly increasing supply and stable rigid demand". In 2025, the national corn output is expected to be 29,616 tons, a 0.4% year - on - year increase. Since July 1, imported corn auctions have supplemented the market, and wheat substitution has squeezed corn consumption, shifting the market from a tight balance to a loose one. The new - season corn planting cost in Northeast China has decreased by 50 - 150 yuan/mu, and considering other costs, the estimated port - collection price is around 2100 yuan/ton, close to the current futures price [9]. - Import substitution: In July 2025, China's corn imports decreased significantly, with only 6 tons, a 62.5% month - on - month and 94.9% year - on - year decline. From January to July, cumulative imports were 84 tons, a 93% year - on - year decrease. However, the imports of substitute grains such as barley, sorghum, rice, and cassava chips increased, cushioning the impact of reduced corn imports [12]. - Seasonal factors: This year, the traditional "lean period" price increase did not occur. Wheat substitution and policy auctions filled the supply gap. Wheat's price advantage has suppressed corn price increases, but as wheat prices approach the minimum purchase price, its substitution effect may weaken. Policy auctions by institutions like Sinograin have stabilized the market by increasing supply and curbing speculation [15][16][17]. - Inventory situation: Corn inventories at both northern and southern ports are at a medium - low level in recent years. As of September 5, the total inventory at four northern ports was about 107 tons, and that at Guangdong Port was 63 tons. Low inventories reduce the market's buffer capacity and increase price elasticity [20]. - Downstream demand: Corn consumption is mainly in feed and deep - processing. In the feed industry, although there is a policy to reduce pig production capacity, the process is slow, and feed demand for corn remains rigid. In the deep - processing industry, enterprises face losses, which limits their raw material procurement and has a limited impact on corn prices [23][25]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The new - season corn supply remains loose. Low port inventories support prices, but downstream demand lacks growth. Wheat substitution and policy auctions suppress price increases. As wheat prices approach the policy bottom, its substitution effect may weaken. In the short - term, after a rebound, corn prices are expected to decline again, and attention should be paid to support levels. If the decline is fully released, the market driving logic may change [5][30].