固收专题：地方债发行新特征及增值税地方债选择

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - In 2025, new features have emerged in local government bond issuance, including longer issuance terms, a higher proportion of self - reviewed and self - issued regions, more distinct differential pricing between general and special bonds as well as callable and non - callable bonds, and a continuous increase in the proportion of over - priced issuances with significant differentiation in issuance spreads across different terms. - When selecting VAT local government bonds, one can consider calculating the implied VAT rate through the valuation of similar old bonds and using the traditional primary - secondary market spread method [1][2]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2025 New Features in Local Government Bond Issuance 3.1.1 Longer Issuance Terms and Higher Proportion of Self - Reviewed and Self - Issued Regions - As of September 7, 2025, the issuance terms of local government bonds have been further extended compared to 2024, mainly due to a significant increase in the supply of ultra - long - term local government bonds, with the proportion rising from 42.71% to 48.63%. - The change in the supply of local government bonds of different terms has affected the liquidity in the secondary market. Since the end of 2024, the turnover rates of 15Y, 20Y, and 30Y local government bonds have significantly increased, especially the monthly turnover rate of 30Y bonds has remained above 10%. - The proportion of bonds issued by self - reviewed and self - issued regions has further increased to 61.04%, indicating that the quota allocation of local government bonds is tilted towards regions with well - prepared projects and high investment efficiency [1][8][22]. 3.1.2 More Distinct Differential Pricing between General and Special Bonds, Callable and Non - Callable Bonds - In 2025, the pricing difference between general and special bonds is more obvious, with the proportion of different coupon rates reaching 47.41%. Among them, 50% of special bonds have a coupon rate up to 3bp higher than general bonds, which is consistent with the secondary - market spread. - The issuance scale of callable bonds in 2025 is only 27 billion yuan, accounting for only 3%. The pricing difference between callable and non - callable bonds is also significant, with the proportion of different coupon rates reaching 56.67%, and 50% of the differences are within 3bp [24][26][31]. 3.1.3 Continuous Increase in the Proportion of Over - Priced Issuances and Significant Differentiation in Issuance Spreads across Different Terms - In 2025, the spread between local government bond issuance rates and treasury bond rates has widened to over 20bp, while the average bid spread has remained around 5bp, leading to a continuous increase in the proportion of over - priced issuances. - Since August 2025, affected by the coupon VAT policy, the market - oriented issuance of local government bonds has been further enhanced. Currently, the issuance spreads of bonds with a term of 3Y and above are relatively consistent with secondary - market spreads, and sometimes the issuance spreads are higher, increasing the value of individual bonds and providing more trading opportunities [34][35][37]. 3.2 How to Select VAT Local Government Bonds 3.2.1 Calculating the Implied VAT Rate through the Valuation of Similar Old Bonds - As of September 8, 2025, 278 VAT local government bonds have been issued, with a cumulative issuance of 1.097135 trillion yuan, averaging 394.7 million yuan per bond. - If the implied VAT rate calculated through the valuation of similar old bonds exceeds 3%, it indicates that the issuance rate takes tax into account and is at least non - loss for funds. When the implied VAT rate at issuance is higher than 6%, the yield of VAT new bonds has downward space. One can focus on bonds such as 25 Ningxia Bond 21, 22, 26 - 29 issued on September 8 but not yet listed [59][70]. 3.2.2 Traditional Primary - Secondary Market Spread - If the spread between the issuance rate of local government bonds and the secondary - market valuation of similar bonds is greater than 0, it indicates that the issuance rate is relatively high, and the new bonds have a safety margin or excess return space. - Currently, one can focus on 30Y bonds such as 25 Ningxia Bond 30, 25 Guangdong Bond 48 - 54 and 10Y bond 25 Dalian Bond 32 issued on September 8 but not yet listed. Bonds with terms of 3Y, 7Y, 20Y, and 30Y are also worth attention if the spread between their issuance rates and treasury bond rates is greater than the secondary - market spread [74].