美联储降息，资产价格如何演绎

Core Insights - The report analyzes the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts on various asset classes, categorizing them into two types: accommodative cuts and preventive cuts, with the former occurring during economic downturns and the latter aimed at preventing potential recessions [4][8][9] - Historical data shows that equity assets tend to perform better during preventive cuts, while they generally decline during accommodative cuts [4][9][11] - The report highlights that U.S. Treasury yields typically decrease following accommodative cuts, while their behavior during preventive cuts is less predictable [11][22] - Currency movements are mixed initially after rate cuts, but diverge significantly after 2-3 months, with the dollar often weakening during accommodative cuts and strengthening during preventive cuts [28] - Commodity prices show a weaker correlation with rate cuts, although gold tends to perform better during accommodative cuts compared to preventive cuts [29][32] Equity Market Analysis - Equity assets have a higher success rate during preventive cuts, with most equity markets, including the U.S. and A-shares, showing positive performance [9][14] - The report notes that the performance of A-shares has a degree of independence from U.S. markets, particularly during rate cut periods [9][16] - Historical performance indicates that after a month of preventive cuts, the likelihood of equity price increases rises significantly [14][20] Bond Market Analysis - U.S. Treasury yields generally decline after the first rate cut, with average decreases of 5 basis points (BP) within 30 days [22][23] - The report indicates that the behavior of Chinese bonds tends to follow a similar pattern, with yields typically decreasing shortly after rate cuts [22][26] - However, the report cautions that the relationship between bond yields in Europe and Japan with U.S. rate cuts is less clear [11][24] Currency Market Analysis - The dollar's performance post-rate cut is inconsistent in the initial months, but shows a tendency to strengthen during preventive cuts and weaken during accommodative cuts [28] - The report highlights that the Chinese yuan's movements are relatively independent of U.S. rate cuts, with a tendency to depreciate during preventive cuts and appreciate during accommodative cuts [28] Commodity Market Analysis - Gold prices tend to rise more significantly during accommodative cuts, with historical data showing substantial increases in the months following such cuts [29][32] - In contrast, oil prices do not exhibit a clear relationship with rate cuts, suggesting that other factors, such as supply and demand dynamics, play a more significant role [31]