Guolian Minsheng Securities·2025-09-09 11:36Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company reported its 2025 semi-annual results, achieving operating revenue of 13.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.6% [5][13] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 7.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.8%, and a net profit of 640 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 75.4% [5][13] - The growth in both passenger and freight transport businesses contributed to the overall performance [5][13] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, passenger transport revenue reached 5.616 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.77% [13] - The number of passengers transported by various services showed mixed results, with intercity trains and long-distance trains experiencing a decline in passenger numbers [13] - Freight transport volume increased by 17.07% to 7.6436 million tons, with freight revenue reaching 842 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.60% [14] Future Outlook - The company expects further growth in passenger and freight transport businesses, along with asset value reassessment due to the planned upgrade of Guangzhou East Station [15][16] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 28.248 billion yuan, 29.209 billion yuan, and 30.204 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 4.28%, 3.40%, and 3.41% [16] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 1.315 billion yuan, 1.381 billion yuan, and 1.462 billion yuan, with growth rates of 24.00%, 5.04%, and 5.87% respectively [16] Valuation Metrics - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.19 yuan for 2025 and 0.21 yuan for 2027 [16] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 23.3 in 2023 to 16.9 in 2027 [17] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected to remain stable around 0.9 to 0.8 over the forecast period [17]