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恒生电子(600570):静待收入拐点,激励提振信心

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 46.13 per share, representing a potential upside of 22% from the current price of RMB 37.49 [1][10]. Core Insights - The company is expected to face short-term revenue pressure but is benefiting from significant growth in investment profits. The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is RMB 1.12 billion, RMB 1.24 billion, and RMB 1.43 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 0.59, RMB 0.65, and RMB 0.76 [1][10]. - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 was RMB 2.43 billion, down 14.44% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 771.57% to RMB 261 million, driven by increased investment profits [5][10]. - The report highlights the company's innovative growth potential, particularly through its Hong Kong subsidiary, Hengyun Technology, which is developing virtual asset trading systems [5][10]. Financial Summary - The total revenue for 2023 was RMB 7,281 million, with a projected decline to RMB 5,919 million in 2025, followed by a recovery to RMB 7,247 million in 2027 [2][7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was RMB 1,424 million, expected to decrease to RMB 1,119 million in 2025, before increasing to RMB 1,429 million in 2027 [2][7]. - The company's net profit margin is projected to be 19.1% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 11.8% [2][7]. Equity Incentives - The company has announced a 2025 equity incentive plan to grant 15.16 million shares, representing 0.80% of total equity, with an exercise price of RMB 37.98 per share. Additionally, an employee stock ownership plan is set to allow the purchase of up to 1.27 million shares at RMB 18.99 per share [5][10].