新大陆(000997):收单业务边际向好,设备出海进展加速

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 39.00 per share [1][12][6]. Core Insights - The company's revenue performance in H1 2025 was strong, with a year-on-year increase of 10.54%, reaching RMB 4.02 billion. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 595 million, up 12.36% year-on-year. However, Q2 profits were constrained by equipment gross profit margin pressures [6][13][14]. - The acquisition business showed improvement with a revenue of RMB 1.45 billion in H1 2025, a 2.39% increase year-on-year, and a gross profit margin of 38.4%, up 2.0 percentage points year-on-year. The transaction volume for the acquisition business was RMB 1.05 trillion, remaining flat year-on-year but showing a quarterly increase trend since Q3 2024 [6][14][15]. - The equipment business revenue reached RMB 1.90 billion in H1 2025, a 24.90% increase year-on-year, but the gross profit margin decreased to 34.80%, down 6.82 percentage points year-on-year due to a market share priority strategy in emerging markets. The company expects the gross profit margin to recover as market expansion completes and revenue from high-margin markets in Europe and America increases [6][15]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 at RMB 1.34 billion, RMB 1.58 billion, and RMB 1.92 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 1.30, RMB 1.53, and RMB 1.86. The 2025 PE ratio is projected at 30 times [6][12][4]. - In H1 2025, the operating cash flow was RMB 376 million, a significant increase of 314.32% year-on-year, indicating strong cash generation capabilities [6][13]. - The overall gross profit margin for Q2 2025 was 32.92%, down 6.41 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to pressures in the equipment business [6][13].