港股市场策略周报：AH溢价显著收窄，关注有色金属与恒生互联网-20250909

Market Overview - The report indicates that the AH premium has significantly narrowed, with the AH premium index dropping to 121, the lowest since 2020, following a review of index components on September 8 [3][5]. - The report suggests that the narrowing of the AH premium is due to changes in market dynamics, including the influx of technology companies into the AH premium index and the reduced influence of dividend tax on insurance funds [2][5]. Industry Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three sectors: innovative pharmaceuticals, internet technology, and non-bank financials, corresponding to specific indices [2][7]. - The innovative pharmaceuticals sector is highlighted for its high growth potential and improved liquidity conditions, which have alleviated previous risks [7]. - The internet sector is expected to benefit from a favorable liquidity environment, as the earnings pressure on major internet companies has been largely priced in [7]. - The non-bank financials sector is recommended due to the anticipated interest rate cuts, which are expected to positively impact the sector [7]. Recent Market Performance - The report notes that the Hong Kong stock market experienced mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.36% and the Hang Seng Technology Index increasing by 0.23% during the week of September 1-5 [8][11]. - The healthcare and materials sectors, particularly non-ferrous metals, led the gains, while the telecommunications sector lagged [11][12]. Fund Flow Analysis - The report highlights a net outflow of local Hong Kong capital, while southbound and foreign capital saw net inflows, with southbound funds totaling a net inflow of 331 million HKD, primarily directed towards non-essential consumption and healthcare [19][26]. - Foreign capital through ETFs recorded a net purchase of 1.5 million USD, indicating continued interest in Hong Kong equities [23][24]. Valuation Metrics - The report states that the current forward PE ratio for the Hang Seng Index is 11.2X, placing it at the 64.6% percentile since 2020, while the Hang Seng Technology Index has a forward PE of 18.3X, at the 17.6% percentile since its inception [30][32]. Financing Needs - As of September 7, the financing needs for Hong Kong-listed companies in September amount to 12.5 billion HKD, with IPO and placement needs at 4.2 billion and 8.3 billion HKD, respectively [33].