Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Apple futures prices plummeted due to increased supply and production expectations, and the market outlook has weakened [1][2] - Egg futures prices rose strongly due to pre - Mid - Autumn Festival demand, but high egg - laying hen inventory may limit subsequent increases [1][3] - Cotton futures prices declined due to early new cotton listing and high - yield expectations, entering a downward trend [1][13] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Apple prices tumbled as early - maturing apples increased in volume and there were expectations of a new - season apple production increase, with short - sellers significantly increasing their positions [1] - Egg prices rose sharply, driven by pre - Mid - Autumn Festival demand and short - sellers closing a large number of positions. However, high egg - laying hen inventory may restrict future gains [1] - Cotton prices broke through support and declined due to early new cotton listing and high - yield expectations, entering a downward trend [1] II. Variety Strategy Tracking (1) Apple: Plummeted - The main 2601 contract of apple futures dropped sharply due to short - sellers significantly increasing their positions. Early Fuji apple trading volume increased, supply rose, and the overall commodity rate was high, disappointing previous expectations of a shortage of high - quality apples. New - season apple production is expected to be stable with a slight increase, increasing the pressure of industrial hedging [2] - The main 2601 contract of apple futures fell below the 20 - day moving average, with a MACD death cross, showing weak technical indicators. The recommended strategy is to hold a small short position, with support at 7973 and resistance at 8100 [2] (2) Egg: Rose Strongly - The main 2510 contract of egg futures rose strongly, driven by pre - festival demand and short - sellers closing a large number of positions. Near the Mid - Autumn Festival, food companies' stocking demand supported the market, and the inventory days of both the production and circulation links decreased. The number of old hens sold increased, potentially reducing inventory pressure [3] - The main 2510 contract of egg futures broke through the 20 - day moving average, with a MACD golden cross below the zero axis and an expanding red column, showing strong technical indicators. The recommended strategy is to hold a small long position, with support at 2978 and resistance at 3080 [3] (3) Palm Oil: Oscillated Upward - The main 2601 contract of palm oil futures oscillated upward with a narrow range. The market is waiting for the MPOB monthly palm oil supply - demand report. Malaysian palm oil production increased slightly in August, while exports improved significantly, and it is expected that the inventory increase at the end of August will be limited. In China, the inventory of the three major oils increased slightly last week, and the inventory of palm oil increased by 11.31% year - on - year. Demand from school openings in autumn and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking supported the oil market [5] - The main 2601 contract of palm oil futures oscillated above the moving - average system, with a shrinking MACD green column, showing strong technical indicators. The recommended strategy is to hold a small long position, with support at 9426 and resistance at 9550 [5] (4) Red Date: Oscillated Downward - The main 2601 contract of red date futures oscillated downward, with weak performance. Double - festival stocking did not show explosive growth, terminal demand was flat, downstream procurement was on - demand, the de - stocking speed of sample points decreased month - on - month, and inventory was still much higher than the same period last year. Traders generally adopted an on - demand procurement strategy, and the market trading atmosphere was cold [7] - The main 2601 contract of red date futures fell below the 40 - day moving average, with an expanding MACD green column, showing weak technical indicators. The recommended strategy is to hold a short position, with support at 10890 and resistance at 11185 [7] (5) Sugar: Continued to Fall - The main 2601 contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures fell again, pressured by increased domestic sugar imports. The sugarcane crop prospects in India and Thailand are good, Brazilian sugar mills have increased the sugar - making ratio, and global white sugar supply is becoming more abundant, with the outer - market raw sugar fluctuating at a low level. In the domestic market, the sales - to - production ratio in August was average, and there are still expectations of increased sugar imports. Customs data shows that China's sugar imports in July were the highest in the same period in the past 10 years, and expectations of increased imports and new - season production increases have weakened the futures price [9] - The main 2601 contract of sugar futures oscillated downward, with the price falling further below the moving - average system and a continuing MACD green column, showing weak technical indicators. The recommended strategy is to hold a small short position, with support at 5500 and resistance at 5532 [9] (6) Corn: Pulled Back and Adjusted - The main 2511 contract of corn futures pulled back and adjusted after reaching a phased high, as long - sellers took profits. Currently, it is the transition period between old and new crops, and the market focus is on the opening prices of new - season corn in various production areas. Before the large - scale listing of new corn, there is a pattern of tight supply and increasing demand, with low inventory at all levels. After the listing of new - season corn, market purchasing enthusiasm is expected to be high, which will support the corn price. The technical adjustment space of the corn futures price may be limited [11] - The main 2511 contract of Dalian corn futures adjusted at a high level, with long - sellers closing their positions and a continuing MACD red column, showing a technical adjustment. The recommended strategy is to close long positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 2200 and resistance at 2234 [11] (7) Cotton: Continued to Fall - The main 2601 contract of cotton futures continued to expand its downward space, pressured by the listing of new cotton. Although the supply of old - crop cotton in China is tightening, the expectation of new - crop cotton production increase is strong, and the overall picking time is earlier than last year. The early listing and high - yield expectation of new cotton have suppressed the cotton futures price. During the "Golden September" peak season, the production and sales of textile enterprises have improved, and the pressure on finished - product inventory has eased. However, new orders have not improved significantly, and some enterprises still have inventory backlogs. Enterprises mainly purchase cotton as needed, failing to form a concentrated purchasing wave, and consumption recovery is still slow [13] - The main 2601 contract of cotton futures fell below the 40 - day moving average, with a MACD death cross and an expanding green column, showing weak technical indicators. The recommended strategy is to hold a small short position, with support at 13800 and resistance at 14000 [13] (8) Live Pig: Continued to Fall - The main 2511 contract of live pig futures continued to fall, pressured by increased supply from slaughter. The live pig production capacity is in the concentrated realization stage in September, and the inventory of market - suitable standard pigs and medium - large pigs may further increase, with great pressure from oversupply. The stock of breeding sows still exceeds the normal level. Data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs shows that the inventory of breeding sows at the end of July 2025 was 40.42 million, reaching 103.6% of the normal level. The planned slaughter volume of large - scale pig enterprises in September increased month - on - month, the supply of market - suitable pigs is sufficient, the risk of pig diseases in some areas has increased, and there is a phenomenon of early slaughter. The prices of medium - large pigs are weak, and the sentiment of weight - reducing slaughter in the social and group pig enterprises has strengthened. High temperatures continue in southern sales areas, the sales of白条 are not smooth, and the improvement of consumption demand is weak, pressuring the pig price [15] - The main 2511 contract of live pig futures fell again and closed with a negative candle, with the price falling further below the moving - average system and an expanding MACD green column, showing weak technical indicators. The recommended strategy is to hold a small short position, with support at 13145 and resistance at 13300 [15] (9) Soybean Meal: Narrowly Oscillated - The main 2601 contract of soybean meal futures narrowly oscillated and closed with a small negative candle. The market is waiting for the USDA monthly soybean supply - demand report. Currently, the crushing volume of domestic oil mills remains at a high level of tens of millions of tons, and the inventory pressure of soybean meal is significant. Under high inventory, oil mills have increased the pressure to urge提货. Data from China Grain and Oil Business Network shows that as of the end of the 36th week, the domestic soybean meal inventory was 1.16 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.09%. High inventory has restricted the increase of soybean meal futures prices, and the market has pulled back [17] - The main 2601 contract of soybean meal futures oscillated and closed with a negative candle, with a narrow range. The recommended strategy is short - term trading, with support at 3058 and resistance at 3080 [17] (10) Soybean Oil: Slightly Closed with a Negative Candle - The main 2601 contract of soybean oil futures slightly fell and oscillated and adjusted. The crushing volume of domestic oil mills remains at a level of tens of millions of tons, the supply of soybean oil has increased, and the inventory remains high. As of September 5, the soybean oil inventory was 1.2388 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.66%. However, with the approaching of the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the stocking demand for soybean oil has increased, supporting the soybean oil price [19] - The main 2601 contract of soybean oil futures slightly adjusted, with the price fluctuating near the short - term moving average and a shrinking MACD green column, showing slightly strong technical indicators. The recommended strategy is to hold a small long position, with support at 8382 and resistance at 8460 [19]
天富期货苹果暴跌，鸡蛋劲升
Tian Fu Qi Huo·2025-09-09 12:16