中泰期货晨会纪要-20250909

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macro - Financial: Short - term stock index futures may fluctuate, and long - term investors can consider buying on dips; for treasury bond futures, consider buying on dips to bet on future monetary policy easing [7][8]. - Black Metals: Steel may maintain a volatile market, iron ore can be lightly shorted; coking coal and coke prices may continue to fall from high levels in the short term; for ferroalloys, go long on silicon iron 10 - contract and short manganese silicon on rebounds in the medium - long term; for soda ash, maintain a short - selling strategy on rallies, and for glass, wait and see [10][12][13]. - Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials: Aluminum can be bought on dips, alumina can be shorted on rallies; zinc prices will fluctuate downward; lithium carbonate will fluctuate widely in the short term; industrial silicon will continue to oscillate within a narrow range [17][18][19]. - Agricultural Products: Zhengzhou cotton may continue to be under pressure in the short term; sugar may rebound in the short term but has downward pressure in the medium - short term; for eggs, trade with a volatile mindset; buy apples on dips; short corn 01 - contract on rallies; short jujubes on rallies; for live pigs, short near - month contracts on rallies and consider long 01 - contract in the medium - long term [24][27][30]. - Energy and Chemicals: For crude oil, consider shorting on rallies; fuel oil prices will follow crude oil; plastics will maintain a relatively strong volatile trend in the short term; rubber can hold long positions and reduce some on further rallies; methanol should be traded with a volatile mindset; caustic soda should be treated with a volatile view; asphalt follows crude oil; for the polyester industry chain, consider buying on dips; liquefied petroleum gas should be held with a long - term bearish view; paper pulp should observe port de - stocking and spot transactions; for logs, consider light - long positions on dips if conditions are met [35][36][37]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Information - China's goods trade进出口总值 in August was 3.87 trillion yuan, up 3.5% year - on - year. From January to August, the total value was 29.57 trillion yuan, up 3.5% year - on - year [4]. - Two departments promote the high - quality development of "AI + energy", aiming to initially build an innovation system by 2027 [4]. - On September 8, the application for child - rearing subsidies was fully opened [4]. - After the "8·8" property market policy in Beijing, the transaction volume of new and second - hand houses increased in August, and the market is expected to maintain the trend in September [4]. - In August, the retail sales of new energy passenger cars were 1.101 million, up 7.5% year - on - year and 11.6% month - on - month, with a penetration rate of 55.2% [5]. - The French government failed the confidence vote, and the prime minister will submit his resignation [5]. - Multiple institutions predict that the US employment data may be significantly revised downward [5]. - Trump's 50% tariff on India may drag down its GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points [5]. - As of September 8, the issuance of new special bonds in China reached 3.3822 trillion yuan, accounting for 76.9% of the annual plan [5]. Macro - Financial Stock Index Futures - Short - term trading may be volatile, and long - term investors can consider buying on dips. On Monday, A - shares were divided, with nearly 4000 stocks rising. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.38% to 3826.84 points, and the trading volume was 2.46 trillion yuan. Overseas, non - farm data was lower than expected, and the market is discussing a possible 50bp rate cut by the Fed in September [7]. Treasury Bond Futures - Consider buying on dips to bet on future monetary policy easing. The money market tightened, and the bond market fell. The release of weak foreign trade data may contribute to future monetary easing. The bond market may perform well in September [8]. Black Metals Steel and Iron Ore - Policy has limited impact on steel supply and market. The peak season may not be prosperous due to limited downstream demand. Steel may maintain a volatile market, and iron ore can be lightly shorted. After the parade, steel production recovered, and iron ore prices were relatively strong, while downstream demand was weak [10][11]. Coking Coal and Coke - Prices may continue to fall from high levels in the short term. After the parade, supply may gradually recover, but the "anti - involution" expectation has re - emerged. The supply of coking coal may be restricted in the medium term, and the demand from steel mills is strong but may decline. The first round of coke price cuts has started, weakening market sentiment [12]. Ferroalloys - Silicon iron supply has returned to a high level, and there is limited room for further increase. Manganese silicon will have new capacity in the fourth quarter. The spread between silicon iron and manganese silicon may widen. Go long on silicon iron 10 - contract and short manganese silicon on rebounds in the medium - long term [13]. Soda Ash and Glass - Glass rose, and soda ash followed. For soda ash, short on rallies; for glass, wait and see. The supply of soda ash is high, and the demand from the photovoltaic industry is good. The glass market is affected by the expected fuel upgrade in the main production areas [14]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum can be bought on dips due to expected consumption recovery and potential inventory reduction, but be cautious due to weak downstream confidence. Alumina has high supply and inventory, and its price is under pressure, so short on rallies [17]. Shanghai Zinc - Social inventory is increasing, and the inventory inflection point has arrived. With rising processing fees, smelters are resuming production, and zinc prices will decline as the industry enters the off - season and downstream demand is weak [18]. Lithium Carbonate - Supply and demand are both strong, and the price is supported by a supply - demand gap, but there is insufficient driving force for continuous increase, so it will fluctuate widely in the short term [19]. Industrial Silicon - It may have a small adjustment pressure in the short term and will continue to oscillate within a narrow range. The resumption of production of leading factories in Xinjiang is the core contradiction, and inventory reduction is expected after the southwest region cuts production in the dry season [20]. Agricultural Products Cotton - Zhengzhou cotton may be under pressure in the short term due to new cotton supply and weak demand. Globally, cotton production and inventory are changing. In China, cotton imports have decreased, and the spot price is firm, but the downstream demand is still weak [24][25][26]. Sugar - It may rebound in the short term but has downward pressure in the medium - short term. Globally, there is a supply surplus. In China, imports are increasing, and domestic demand is weakening [27][28][29]. Eggs - The laying hen inventory is high, and the probability of a short - term market reversal is low. However, due to the peak season, the spot price is strong in the short term. Futures have the logic of capacity reduction, so trade with a volatile mindset [30]. Apples - Buy on dips. The price of early - maturing apples is high, and the price of late - maturing apples is affected by the early - maturing and old - season apples [31]. Corn - Short the 01 - contract on rallies. The domestic corn price is divided. In the northeast, the price is rising due to low inventory, while in the north - central region, it is falling due to sufficient supply [32]. Jujubes - Short on rallies. The price in the production area is stable, and the price in the sales area is mainly stable with some high - quality products rising [33]. Live Pigs - Short near - month contracts on rallies and consider long 01 - contract in the medium - long term. The short - term market has a "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern, and the supply pressure is high before the holidays [33]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Consider shorting on rallies. OPEC + is increasing production, and the market may enter a supply - surplus pattern. Pay attention to the US - Russia negotiation and OPEC + quota [35]. Fuel Oil - Prices will follow crude oil. The short - term trading will focus on supply and geopolitics, and the low - sulfur and high - sulfur fundamentals are affected by different factors [35]. Plastics - Polyolefins have high supply pressure and will be weak in terms of supply - demand. However, the market sentiment is boosted by rumors of anti - involution policies, and it will maintain a relatively strong volatile trend in the short term [36]. Rubber - Hold long positions and reduce some on further rallies. The market sentiment is improved by the poor US non - farm data and policy rumors. The supply of raw materials is tight [37]. Methanol - Trade with a volatile mindset. The port inventory is increasing, but the market is affected by rumors of device shutdowns and new device startups [38]. Caustic Soda - Treat with a volatile view. After the parade, the supply - demand situation in Shandong may improve, but the market sentiment is affected by factors such as the increase in alumina enterprises' liquid caustic soda purchases [38]. Asphalt - Follows crude oil. It has entered the seasonal peak demand season, and the inventory is at a critical stage [39][40]. Polyester Industry Chain - Consider buying on dips. After a sharp decline, there is a repair demand. The supply - demand situation of PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol is different [41]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Hold a long - term bearish view. It follows crude oil prices and is affected by import volume. Supply is abundant, and demand is weak [42]. Paper Pulp - Observe port de - stocking and spot transactions. The port inventory is still high, and the spot trading is weak [43]. Logs - Consider light - long positions on dips if the price - holding and downstream orders are good. The spot price is stable, and the foreign price of logs has decreased [44]. Urea - Hold a bearish view. The domestic demand is weak, and the futures price is higher than the spot price, showing a downward - oscillating trend [45]. Synthetic Rubber - Reduce long positions on further rallies and look for low - buying opportunities. The short - term supply - demand is balanced, and it will continue to oscillate. Pay attention to policies, device changes, and downstream purchasing sentiment [46].