中泰期货原糖周报-20250909

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamental situation of the log market is in a state of oscillation. Downstream demand remains stable, but traders have a strong willingness to support prices during the peak season, causing the futures market to rebound following market sentiment. It is crucial to observe the implementation of price - support measures and downstream orders during the peak season. If the implementation is satisfactory, one can consider lightly opening long positions at low prices, while also paying attention to risk prevention [17]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Part 1: Log Overview - Supply Side - This week, the number of arriving ships decreased to 5 from 15 last week, and the arrival volume dropped by 37.1 million cubic meters to 17 million cubic meters. The import volume of coniferous logs decreased by 22.35 million cubic meters to 195.33 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7%. The import volume of radiata pine decreased by 20.96 million cubic meters to 139.72 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6%. The import volume of spruce and fir decreased by 2.15 million cubic meters to 13.73 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 44%. - In the short term, the arrival volume has rebounded this week, and the supply side has a certain amount of pressure. From the perspective of New Zealand's shipping seasonality, shipments usually increase in September. The poor order - taking situation in August led to a reduction in quotes, which promoted the import willingness of domestic traders to some extent. It is expected that the arrival volume in late September to mid - October will increase, depending on the peak - season price - support situation in the domestic spot market and traders' import profits [7]. - Demand and Inventory Side - The peak season has arrived, but the port's outbound volume has not improved significantly. Demand remains weak, and there are no large concentrated orders. The weekly outbound volume decreased by 0.56 million cubic meters to 42.84 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 0.98 million cubic meters. The apparent demand decreased by 40.85 million cubic meters to 22 million cubic meters. - Although the total arrival volume last week was still low, factory demand remained stable. The arrival volume increased rapidly this week, and it is expected that inventory will fluctuate and gradually accumulate [9]. - Price and Spread - Outer Market: The outer - market price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine from New Zealand (CFR) is in the range of 113 - 115 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, a decrease of 5 US dollars compared to the previous period. - Spot: Demand remains stable. As the peak season approaches, spot prices are relatively stable, and traders have a strong willingness to support prices during the peak season. The prices of knot - free wood and sawn timber are currently polarized. In the short term, downstream acceptance is limited, and prices are expected to remain stable. - Futures Market: The fundamental situation is oscillating. Last week, the futures market was mainly affected by outer - market price adjustments. In the short term, the supply side has no significant pressure, and demand remains stable. It is expected that prices will oscillate. If spot prices increase smoothly this week, prices may oscillate upwards [11]. - Spreads and Basis: Spot spreads are relatively stable, mainly reflected in glued - laminated timber and sawn timber. Affected by spot spreads, the current basis can be considered at the level of 5.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine, with a reference size difference of 8%, equivalent to about 790 - 800 yuan per cubic meter in the futures market [13]. - Cost and Profit - The import cost of radiata pine decreased by 33 yuan to 968 yuan, and the import cost of spruce increased by 13 yuan to 1266 yuan. The import profit of radiata pine increased by 32.7 yuan to - 31 yuan, and the import profit of spruce decreased by 13 yuan to - 116 yuan. - The outer - market quotes have decreased, and import profits have rebounded. In the short term, the fundamental situation is still oscillating. Spot import profits are acceptable. If spot price increases are implemented, import profits will further improve [15]. - Strategy Recommendation - The fundamental situation is oscillating. Downstream demand remains stable, but traders have a strong willingness to support prices during the peak season, causing the futures market to rebound following market sentiment. Observe the implementation of price - support measures and downstream orders during the peak season. If the implementation is satisfactory, one can consider lightly opening long positions at low prices, while also paying attention to risk prevention [17]. Part 2: Log Balance Sheet The log balance sheet shows the supply, demand, inventory, and supply - demand differences of logs on a weekly basis from June 6, 2025, to September 5, 2025. In general, the arrival volume, daily average shipment volume, and apparent demand have all fluctuated, and inventory has also changed accordingly, with supply - demand differences sometimes positive and sometimes negative [19]. Part 3: Log Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply Side - New Zealand Log Shipment Volume: No specific data content provided. - Log Import: No specific data content provided. - Import by Tree Species: No specific data content provided. - Demand Side - Daily Average Shipment Volume of Logs: No specific data content provided. - Real Estate: No specific data content provided. - Downstream Analysis - Timber Analysis - Price: No specific data content provided. - Timber Analysis - Profit: No specific data content provided. - Downstream Substitute - Aluminum Alloy Analysis: No specific data content provided. - Inventory Side - Inventory - Summary: No specific data content provided. - Inventory - By Tree Species: No specific data content provided. - Inventory - By Region: No specific data content provided. Part 4: Cost and Profit - Log Import Cost and Profit: No specific data content provided. - Log Delivery Profit: No specific data content provided. Part 5: Log Price and Spread Analysis - Log Outer - Market Quotes: No specific data content provided. - Seasonality of Radiata Pine and Spruce Prices: The prices of radiata pine and spruce show certain seasonal characteristics in 2024 and 2025 [89]. - Seasonality of Radiata Pine and Spruce Spreads: No specific data content provided. - Basis between Radiata Pine and LG: No specific data content provided. - Seasonal Chart and Inter - Month Spread of LG Main Contracts: The price of the LG main contract shows certain seasonal characteristics in 2024 and 2025 [100].