板块观点汇总品种：中期结构短期结构原油小时周期策略偏空，EB小时级别试空机会-20250909

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report treats the energy and chemical industry weakly [1] Core Viewpoints - The energy and chemical industry is generally bearish, with different degrees of supply - demand imbalances and downward - facing fundamentals in multiple products [2][3][6] Summary by Product Crude Oil - Logic: OPEC+ starts the second - stage 165 - barrel - per - day resumption plan, with 137,000 barrels per day increase in October. The domestic seasonal demand slows down earlier than overseas, leading to SC crude oil breaking through support first. The fundamental drive is downward [3] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. There is an opportunity to short on the hourly level, with a stop - loss reference of 489 (11 contract) [3] Styrene (EB) - Logic: The weekly start - up rate has a slight increase, but there will be unplanned maintenance. The downstream profit is poor, and the port inventory continues to accumulate. After the autumn maintenance peak, there will be new device production pressure in September - October. The supply - demand pattern is weak [6] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term downward structure is being tested. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions cautiously, with a final stop - profit at 7180 (10 contract) [6] Rubber - Logic: Seasonal factors are strong, but there is no weather speculation on the supply side. The import volume is expected to increase. The demand is neutral, with the semi - steel tire start - up rate dropping and the full - steel tire start - up rate remaining high [9] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term oscillating structure, and the hourly - level has an upward structure. The strategy is to wait and see [9] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The supply - demand of butadiene styrene rubber has no major contradiction, but the cost of butadiene is bearish due to increased port inventory and new capacity release. The upstream crude oil also has downward pressure [14] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term oscillating structure. Hold 15 - minute short positions, with a stop - profit reference of 11960 [14] PX - Logic: The PX start - up rate increases, and the demand - side start - up rate drops. The previous inventory reduction has paused, and the short - term fundamentals are weak, with more attention on the cost - end crude oil [16][19] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term downward structure is being tested. Hold the remaining short positions [19] PTA - Logic: It lacks its own drive, and focuses on the cost - end crude oil collapse logic [20] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. Hold short positions, with a stop - profit reference of 4700 [20] PP - Logic: The supply - side start - up rate increases, and there are new device productions. The demand is in the peak season, and the supply - demand pressure is not obvious. Focus on the cost - end collapse logic [23] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. Hold short positions, and consider partial stop - profit if it breaks through 6990 (15 - minute short - cycle pressure) [23] Methanol - Logic: The domestic and overseas methanol start - up rates are high, the port inventory continues to accumulate to a 5 - year high, and the downstream demand is weak [27] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term downward/oscillating structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. Hold the remaining short positions cautiously, with a final stop - profit at 2435 [27] PVC - Logic: The start - up rate is high, the inventory is at a historical high, and the demand is difficult to improve before the real - estate market bottoms out [28] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. Hold short positions, with a short - term pressure at 4965 [31] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The port inventory is at a low level, but it is expected to enter a inventory - accumulation cycle. The short - term reality is strong, and the medium - term expectation is bearish [32] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level has a downward structure. Transfer 15 - minute short positions to hourly positions, with a stop - loss reference of 4375 [32] Plastic - Logic: The PE start - up rate is stable, and the demand improvement is slow in the peak season. The fundamental drive is average [35] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level has a downward structure. Hold 15 - minute short positions, with a stop - loss reference of 7305 [35] Soda Ash - Logic: After the anti - involution hype, it enters the spot - futures regression logic. The supply - demand pattern is supply - strong and demand - weak, with high inventory and production pressure [38] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level has a downward structure. Hold short positions, with a short - term pressure at 1320 [38] Caustic Soda - Logic: The supply - side production and start - up rate decreased last week, but the supply pressure will return after the end of special events. The demand is strong but the supply pressure is greater, and the inventory is at a 5 - year high [40] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level has a downward structure. Hold short positions, with a stop - profit reference of 2635 [40]