Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-09-09 13:22Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou Technology (01024) [6] Core Insights - Kuaishou's Q2 2025 revenue reached 35.046 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 13.1%, with adjusted net profit of 5.618 billion CNY, up 20.1%, achieving a record quarterly adjusted net profit margin of 16.0%, exceeding market expectations [6] - The company declared its first special dividend since listing, distributing 0.46 HKD per share, totaling approximately 2 billion HKD [6] - Kuaishou's daily active users (DAU) reached 409 million, a 3.4% year-on-year increase, while monthly active users (MAU) reached 715 million, up 3.3%, with user engagement at 57.2% [6] - The OneRec end-to-end recommendation system contributed to stable traffic growth, with average daily usage time of 126.8 minutes, a 7.5% year-on-year increase [6] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for Kuaishou are as follows: - 2023: 113.47 billion CNY - 2024: 126.90 billion CNY - 2025E: 142.71 billion CNY - 2026E: 156.47 billion CNY - 2027E: 171.03 billion CNY - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 10.27 billion CNY - 2024: 17.72 billion CNY - 2025E: 20.25 billion CNY - 2026E: 22.93 billion CNY - 2027E: 26.67 billion CNY - The report adjusts revenue forecasts downwards for 2025-2027 due to short-term macro pressures, with new estimates of 142.71 billion CNY, 156.47 billion CNY, and 171.03 billion CNY respectively [3][7] Business Performance - Kuaishou's online marketing revenue for Q2 2025 was 19.8 billion CNY, a 12.8% year-on-year increase, with e-commerce GMV reaching 358.9 billion CNY, up 17.6% [6] - The company’s other revenue sources grew by 26% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [6] - The introduction of the Keling AI technology has led to significant improvements in model quality and performance, contributing to revenue of 250 million CNY in Q2 2025, surpassing expectations [6]