黄金重回货币属性

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - Gold prices are influenced by interest rates, but the relationship can be unstable at times. The sensitivity of gold prices to the US real interest rate has changed over different periods, with a notable increase in sensitivity since 2020 [4][7] - The recent non-farm payroll data fell short of expectations, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. This is expected to support gold prices in the near future [4][12] - The report suggests that as gold prices align with their intrinsic value, the sensitivity to interest rates is likely to increase, indicating a stable phase for the US dollar [8] Summary by Sections 1. Sensitivity of Gold Prices to Interest Rates - The sensitivity of gold prices to the US real interest rate has varied over the past 20 years, with a sensitivity of -404.8 from 2003 to 2015, -151.3 from 2016 to 2019, and a positive sensitivity of 224.1 from 2020 to present [7][8] 2. Ongoing Rate Cut Cycle and Positive Outlook for Gold Prices - The August non-farm payroll data showed an increase of only 22,000 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.3%. This has led to a 90.1% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in September, with expectations for further cuts by the end of the year [12][14]