Changjiang Securities·2025-09-09 14:12Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer [9] Core Views - Qingdao Beer achieved a total revenue of 20.491 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.11%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.904 billion yuan, up 7.21% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 3.632 billion yuan, an increase of 5.99% year-on-year [2][4] - The company’s sales volume reached 4.732 million kiloliters in H1 2025, with a volume increase of 2.3%, outperforming the domestic beer industry, which saw a decline of 0.3% in cumulative production from January to June. The main brand's sales volume increased by 3.9% in H1 2025 [5] - The improvement in gross margin is driven by cost benefits and product structure optimization, with the gross margin rising by 2.09 percentage points year-on-year to 43.7% in H1 2025 [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, total revenue was 10.046 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.28%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.194 billion yuan, up 7.32% year-on-year, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 2.029 billion yuan, an increase of 6.02% year-on-year [2][4] - The net profit margin for H1 2025 improved by 0.91 percentage points to 19.05%, while the gross margin increased by 2.09 percentage points to 43.7% [6] Market and Product Strategy - The company is focusing on product innovation and has launched several new products, including "light dry," "sakura-flavored white beer," and "hazy IPA," to strengthen its market position across all categories and channels [5] - The revenue in Shandong province grew by 2.56% in H1 2025, contributing significantly to overall growth and profit improvement. The East China region saw a revenue increase of 9.94% with a notable improvement in net profit margin [5] Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its steady growth in H2 2025, driven by ongoing cost benefits and a trend towards premiumization. The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 4.91 billion, 5.43 billion, and 6.01 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 19X, 17X, and 15X [7]