美国劳动力市场显著走弱，金价再创新高

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The significant weakening of the US labor market has strengthened market expectations of interest rate cuts, boosting a substantial increase in gold prices. On September 5, the Shanghai Gold main futures price rose 3.88% to 815.60 yuan/gram compared to the previous Friday, and the COMEX gold main futures price rose 3.52% to 3,639.80 US dollars/ounce. Spot gold prices also had significant increases [3]. - Gold prices are expected to continue rising in the week of September 8. The release of US inflation data for August is expected. As long as inflation data does not rebound significantly, it will not affect the Fed's decision to cut rates. The weak labor market, combined with the deteriorating Middle East situation, will boost gold prices [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Last Week's Market Review 1.1 Gold Spot and Futures Price Trends - On September 5, the Shanghai Gold main futures price closed at 815.60 yuan/gram, up 30.48 yuan/gram from the previous Friday; the COMEX gold main futures price closed at 3,639.80 US dollars/ounce, up 123.70 US dollars/ounce. The gold T+D spot price closed at 811.65 yuan/gram, up 29.95 yuan/gram, and the London gold spot price closed at 3,586.00 US dollars/ounce, up 139.19 US dollars/ounce [6]. 1.2 Gold Basis - On September 5, the international gold basis (spot - futures) was -6.25 US dollars/ounce, up 40.10 US dollars/ounce from the previous Friday; the Shanghai gold basis was -2.75 yuan/gram, down 1.45 yuan/gram [9]. 1.3 Gold Domestic and Foreign Market Price Differences - Affected by the increasing market sentiment for interest rate cuts, the foreign - market gold price continued to rise significantly last week. The gold domestic and foreign market price difference on Friday was -31.08 yuan/gram, down from -22.25 yuan/gram the previous Friday. The gold - to - oil ratio continued to rise, the gold - to - silver ratio rebounded, and the gold - to - copper ratio increased significantly [12]. 1.4 Position Analysis - In terms of spot positions, the gold ETF holdings continued to increase last week. As of September 5, the holdings of the world's largest SPRD gold ETF fund were 981.97 tons, up 4.29 tons from the previous week. The cumulative trading volume of domestic gold T+D rebounded, with a cumulative trading volume of 297,248 kilograms, up 104.90% from the previous week. In terms of futures positions, as of September 2, the long positions of gold CFTC asset management institutions continued to rise, and the net long positions increased. The COMEX gold futures inventory and the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory both increased [16]. 2. Macroeconomic Fundamentals 2.1 Important Economic Data - The ECB President stated that the price target has been achieved, and the euro - zone inflation rate will be maintained at 2.0%. Market expectations for further ECB easing this year are cooling, and it is expected to "stand pat" again at next week's meeting [22][23]. - The US ISM manufacturing PMI in August was 48.7, contracting for six consecutive months. However, the new orders index expanded for the first time since the beginning of the year, while the output index fell back into the contraction range, and the employment index remained weak [24]. - US JOLTS job openings in July were 7.181 million, the lowest in 10 months. The ratio of job openings to the number of unemployed fell to 1.0. Hiring increased, and layoffs rose to the highest level since September last year [25]. - US non - farm payrolls in August increased by 22,000, far lower than expected. The unemployment rate was 4.3%, a four - year high. The average hourly wage in August increased by 3.7% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month, in line with market expectations [26]. 2.2 Fed Policy Tracking - Fed officials had significant internal policy differences on the interest rate cut path this week. Some advocated starting interest rate cuts this month and multiple cuts in the next few months, while others were more cautious, believing that there was no reason to cut rates this month [36][37]. 2.3 US Dollar Index Trend - The US dollar index fluctuated slightly downward last week. Multiple US labor market data were far below expectations, increasing the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September, causing the US dollar index to decline 0.11% to 97.74 as of September 5 [38]. 2.4 US TIPS Yield Trend - The yield of the US 10 - year TIPS first rose and then fell last week, with an overall significant decline. The strong performance of the US ISM services index at the beginning of the week led to an increase in yields, but subsequent labor market data strengthened rate - cut expectations, causing yields to fall 9bp to 1.73% as of September 5 [41]. 2.5 International Important Event Tracking - The Middle East and Russia - Ukraine situations remained unresolved. There was uncertainty about the Gaza cease - fire agreement, and Russia launched the largest - scale air strike on Ukraine since the war [44].