A股2025Q2业绩深度分析之三：基于2025年中报的行业景气度评估与推荐

Core Insights - The report evaluates the profitability, supply-demand constraints, and cash flow ratios of various industries based on the A-share 2025 mid-year report, identifying sectors with strong performance and upward trends in economic conditions [1][4]. Industry Overview: Key Financial Indicator Scoring - The highest scoring industries are primarily in the consumer services sector, including cement, liquor, aquaculture, dairy products, condiments, airport services, medical services, beauty care, home goods, media, engineering machinery, and home appliances [12][13]. - The scoring methodology involves assessing net profit growth, ROE, gross margin, inventory levels, capital expenditure growth, and free cash flow as a percentage of revenue, with weighted averages calculated for each industry [12][13]. Overall Profitability and Breakdown - A-share profitability growth has slowed, with a Q2 net profit growth of 1.2%, down from 3.2% in Q1 2025, and non-financial and oil sectors experiencing negative profit margins [14][15]. - The decline in profitability is attributed to supply-demand mismatches, persistent negative PPI, and insufficient effective demand, particularly in real estate and investment sectors [14][15]. - Some sectors, such as electric equipment and real estate, have shown improvement, while TMT sectors benefit from strong demand, contributing positively to overall A-share recovery [15] [18]. Economic Trends: Industry Performance - Rapid growth is observed in sectors benefiting from strong demand for computing power, semiconductor domestic substitution, and military trade breakthroughs, particularly in TMT and military industries [4][10]. - Marginal improvements are noted in pharmaceuticals, anti-involution sectors, small discretionary consumption, and mid-to-high-end manufacturing [4][10]. - Stable growth is seen in export-oriented manufacturing and other sectors like feed and aquaculture [4][10]. Supply Side: Capacity and Inventory Cycles - The report highlights a transition from passive destocking to active restocking, particularly in TMT and mid-to-high-end manufacturing sectors [5][8]. - Capacity expansion rates are generally slowing, with capital expenditure growth expected to bottom out and recover in 2025 [8][10]. - Industries such as chemical pharmaceuticals, biological products, cement, and others are anticipated to experience capacity clearing as demand improves [8][10]. Demand Side: Profit Margins and Contract Liabilities - Industries with improving profit margins and contract liabilities include computing, basic chemicals, defense, automotive, and electric equipment [6][8]. - The report indicates that contract liabilities in resource sectors, midstream manufacturing, and healthcare are expanding, suggesting potential profitability improvements in Q3 [6][8]. Cash Flow Analysis - Consumer services, healthcare, and information technology sectors exhibit relatively high free cash flow as a percentage of total revenue [6][8]. - The report identifies high free cash flow return rates in upstream and downstream industries, particularly in consumer services and healthcare [6][8]. Industry Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors with sustained economic trends and cyclical recoveries, including TMT, advantageous manufacturing, and certain resource sectors [10][12]. - It also highlights sectors likely to experience turnaround under anti-involution conditions, such as upstream resources and midstream manufacturing [10][12]. - Cash cow sectors with high or improving free cash flow ratios are primarily found in consumer services, including liquor, hotel and restaurant services, and home appliances [10][12].