出口韧性几何

Group 1: Trade Dynamics - The US-China trade friction has accelerated the restructuring of global trade, benefiting emerging markets like ASEAN and Africa, while posing challenges for Japan, South Korea, and Europe[2][34]. - By July 2025, China's share of US imports is projected to decline by 4.4 percentage points to 9%, while ASEAN's share is expected to rise by 3.2 percentage points to 14%[4][34]. - Despite a significant drop in US import demand since April, imports from ASEAN have maintained a growth rate of around 30%[4][34]. Group 2: Economic Impact - ASEAN's exports of labor-intensive goods such as toys and footwear have increased significantly, with respective shares rising by 21% and 12% in the first half of 2024 compared to 2023[7][34]. - Vietnam's GDP grew by 7.5% in the first half of 2024, with foreign direct investment reaching approximately $15.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%[7][34]. - China's exports to ASEAN grew by 12% in the first half of 2025, with capital goods and intermediate goods contributing significantly to this growth[8][34]. Group 3: Market Share Changes - In the overall market, China's export share increased by 0.1 percentage points, while ASEAN's share rose by 0.5 percentage points in the first half of 2024[34]. - The share of imports from Africa to China has increased to 23.1% in 2024, up 6.2 percentage points from 2019, making China Africa's largest trading partner[19][34]. - By August 2025, ASEAN, EU, and Africa accounted for 17.8%, 16.1%, and 5.8% of China's exports, respectively, with ASEAN showing a year-on-year increase of 2.6 percentage points[24][34].