资产配置日报：债市“摆烂”-20250909

Market Overview - On September 9, both stock and bond markets experienced adjustments, with the ChiNext Index and the Sci-Tech 50 dropping by 2.38% and 2.23% respectively, indicating potential liquidity risks similar to the 2021 new energy bubble[1] - The Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 fell by 0.51% and 0.70% respectively, reflecting a broader market decline as major investors exited[1] Trading Volume and Market Sentiment - The total trading volume of the Wande All A Index decreased by 0.89% to 2.15 trillion yuan, a significant drop of 311.1 billion yuan compared to the previous day[2] - The current decline is viewed as a healthy adjustment rather than a sign of a complete downturn, characterized by a "small drop on low volume" indicating hesitant investor sentiment[2] Fund Flows and Sector Performance - Leverage funds saw a substantial inflow of 26.2 billion yuan on September 8, but confidence faced challenges as sectors like SW Electric Equipment and SW Electronics dropped by 1.31% and 2.70% respectively on September 9[3] - Gold stocks emerged as a favored investment direction, with the Wande Gold Jewelry Index rising by 5.15%, reflecting a shift in capital towards safer assets amid market volatility[3] Hong Kong Market Dynamics - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 1.19% and 1.30% respectively, led by consumer, non-ferrous, and real estate sectors[4] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of 10.2 billion HKD, indicating a more optimistic outlook towards Hong Kong stocks, particularly in Alibaba which attracted a net inflow of 4.234 billion HKD[4] Bond Market Conditions - The bond market remains under pressure, with 10-year and 30-year yields rising to 1.80% and 2.08% respectively, reflecting heightened pessimism among investors[6] - The market's reaction to potential regulatory changes in public bond funds has intensified, leading to a significant sell-off in index bond funds[6] Commodity Market Trends - The domestic commodity market saw a decline in sentiment, with polysilicon and lithium carbonate prices dropping by 3.7% and 2.6% respectively, while iron ore rose by 2.0%[8] - The cautious market sentiment is reflected in the performance of related sectors, with photovoltaic equipment and lithium battery stocks experiencing declines of 3.02% and 1.38% respectively[9] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected adjustments in monetary policy, liquidity changes, and fiscal policy shifts, which could impact market stability[12]