黑色建材日报-20250910

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market has entered the peak season, but demand is weak, with steel mill profits gradually shrinking and the weak characteristics of the futures market deepening. If demand cannot be effectively repaired, prices may further decline. The raw material side is more stable than the finished product side, and attention should be paid to the potential impact of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions. It is recommended to focus on the recovery rhythm of terminal demand and the support of the cost side for finished product prices [4]. - The speculation about the "Anti - involution" policy in the commodity market is more of a price rebound due to emotional fluctuations after prices fall to a phased low. Whether it can continue to rise depends on the actual implementation and effect of the policy. The trading focus of the black sector before mid - October will be on the verification of real - end demand. There is a risk of demand decline, which will put pressure on prices [10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel - Price and Position Data: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3123 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (-0.28%) from the previous trading day, with registered warehouse receipts increasing by 10,517 tons and the main contract position decreasing by 19,825 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3349 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (-0.08%), with registered warehouse receipts unchanged and the main contract position increasing by 5579 lots. In the spot market, rebar prices in Tianjin decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil prices in Lecong increased by 10 yuan/ton [3]. - Market Analysis: The overall atmosphere in the commodity market is good, but the finished product prices are under pressure. The policy of Guinea may lead to tight supply of raw materials. Rebar apparent demand is weak, and the inventory accumulation pressure increases; hot - rolled coil production reduction is large, apparent demand decreases significantly, and the overall demand is neutral to weak, with inventory continuously rising. If demand cannot be effectively repaired, prices may further decline [4]. Iron Ore - Price and Position Data: The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 805.00 yuan/ton, up 1.64% (+13.00), with the position increasing by 29,080 lots to 541,200 lots. The weighted position was 853,600 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 799 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.96 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.29% [6]. - Market Analysis: Affected by the news from Guinea, the iron ore futures market rose in the morning and then fell back. Overseas iron ore shipments decreased significantly, and the recent arrival volume decreased slightly. The average daily molten iron output decreased by 112,900 tons. The inventory of ports increased, and the inventory of steel mills decreased. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Price and Position Data: The main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed down 0.03% at 5838 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a premium of 52 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) closed down 0.07% at 5620 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, with a premium of 130 yuan/ton over the futures [9]. - Market Analysis: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are in a range - bound pattern. The short - term speculative arbitrage space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see. The "Anti - involution" policy may bring price fluctuations, but the trading focus in the future will be on the verification of real - end demand. The fundamentals of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are not ideal, and they are likely to follow the sentiment of the black sector [9][10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Price and Position Data: The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) closed at 8410 yuan/ton, down 1.41% (-120), with the weighted position decreasing by 5663 lots to 491,242 lots. The main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) closed at 53,520 yuan/ton, down 3.93% (-2190), with the weighted position decreasing by 18,889 lots to 311,131 lots [13][15]. - Market Analysis: The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, and it is affected by downstream capacity integration and "Anti - involution" sentiment. Polysilicon is in a "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern, and the short - term price is affected by capacity integration policies and downstream price - passing progress. Attention should be paid to risk control [14][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - Price and Inventory Data: The spot price of glass in Shahe increased by 22 yuan to 1173 yuan, and in Central China increased by 20 yuan to 1090 yuan. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.05 million weight cases, up 0.77% month - on - month. The spot price of soda ash was 1180 yuan, down 20 yuan. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8231 million tons, up 0.05% [18][19]. - Market Analysis: The price of glass is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it follows the macro - sentiment in the long term. The price of soda ash is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the increase is limited by the demand side [18][19].