Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content is provided in the given text. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the expected downward adjustment of 911,000 in US non - farm payrolls shows a cooling labor market, strengthening expectations of a Fed rate cut, with the US dollar index showing resilience and global risk appetite rising. Domestically, China's August exports were lower than expected, but the trade surplus was better. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September. Short - term domestic market sentiment and risk appetite are rising, and the short - term macro upward drive is strengthening. Focus on Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies [2][3] - For assets, the stock index is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long. Treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, and it is advisable to observe cautiously. In the commodity sector, black, non - ferrous, and energy - chemical products are expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is advisable to observe cautiously. Precious metals are expected to be stronger at a high level in the short - term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Macro: Overseas, the US labor market is cooling, strengthening Fed rate - cut expectations. The US dollar index shows resilience, and global risk appetite rises. Domestically, exports were lower than expected in August, but the trade surplus was better. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption. Short - term domestic market sentiment and risk appetite are rising, and the short - term macro upward drive is strengthening [2] - Stock Index: Affected by semiconductor, consumer electronics, and AI sectors, the domestic stock market declined slightly. With favorable policies and increased risk appetite, the short - term macro upward drive is strengthening. It is advisable to be cautiously long in the short - term [3] Black Metals - Steel: The steel market continued to fluctuate on Tuesday. August export data exceeded expectations, but consumption data declined and inventory increased. Steel mills in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region are resuming production, and the cost support has strengthened. The steel market is likely to fluctuate within a range [4] - Iron Ore: On Tuesday, iron ore prices rebounded significantly. The proportion of profitable steel mills is about 60%, and northern steel mills will continue to resume production. Global iron ore shipments and arrivals decreased this week. The news of a smelter in Simandou drove up prices, but the event may not last long. Iron ore prices are expected to be stronger with fluctuations [4] - Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron: On Tuesday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat, and the futures prices rebounded slightly. The silicon manganese spot market fluctuated, and the manganese ore price was firm. The production of silicon iron and silicon manganese in different regions had different performances. The market is expected to fluctuate within a range [6] - Soda Ash: The main soda ash contract fluctuated weakly on Tuesday. Supply increased, demand was weak, and profit decreased. Soda ash has a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand, and is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short - term [7] - Glass: The main glass contract fluctuated weakly on Tuesday. Supply increased slightly, demand was stable but difficult to improve significantly, and profit increased slightly. Glass is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short - term [7] Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - Copper: Goldman Sachs believes the Fed doesn't need to cut rates quickly. Copper concentrate TC has risen slightly, and domestic demand will weaken marginally. Short - term rate - cut expectations may support prices, but the firm copper price is hard to sustain [8] - Aluminum: Aluminum prices rose slightly on Tuesday. Social inventory increased, and demand in the peak season was poor. LME aluminum inventory has rebounded. The medium - term upward space is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. The expected Fed rate cut in September may support prices [8] - Aluminum Alloy: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is weak. Considering cost support, the price is expected to be stronger with fluctuations in the short - term, but the upward space is limited [9] - Tin: The combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi decreased by 10.32% to 49.11%. Supply was affected by smelter maintenance and tight ore, but it will ease later. Demand was weak, and inventory increased. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [9] - Lithium Carbonate: The main lithium carbonate contract fell 2.62% on Tuesday. The news of the potential resumption of the Jiaxiaowo lithium mine affected market sentiment. It is expected to be weak and fluctuate [10] - Industrial Silicon: The main industrial silicon contract fell 1.58% on Tuesday. Polycrystalline silicon is oscillating at a high level, and industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate within a range [10] - Polycrystalline Silicon: The main polycrystalline silicon contract fell 3.73% on Tuesday. There are rumors of state reserves and capacity reduction, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term [11] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Israel's attack on Doha may affect the peace process and oil supply. The rise on Tuesday may not last. Ukraine's actions against Russian energy infrastructure also affect supply. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate due to geopolitical risks [12] - Asphalt: Asphalt prices fluctuate with oil prices. The upside is limited as demand may decline. Pay attention to the inventory and the follow - up increase with oil prices [12][13] - PX: PX prices are stable with oil prices. It is in a tight supply situation, and the PXN spread has increased. It is expected to fluctuate and wait for changes in PTA plants [13] - PTA: Low processing fees lead to lower operating rates. Demand recovery is limited, and the basis has weakened. The upside is not high [13] - Ethylene Glycol: Port inventory has increased. Supply pressure will return, but the polyester sector is stable, and the basis provides some support. It is expected to fluctuate [13] - Short - fiber: Short - fiber prices have declined slightly. Terminal orders have increased seasonally, but the upside is limited. It is advisable to go short on rallies in the medium - term [14] - Methanol: The port spot basis is stable. Supply pressure exists, but there are signs of improvement in supply - demand balance. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [14] - PP: The market is consolidating. Supply has increased, and there is policy support. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [15] - LLDPE: LLDPE prices are adjusting. Supply pressure will increase after maintenance ends. Demand is slowly rising, and it is expected to fluctuate [15] Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: The CBOT November soybean contract fell 0.31%. Analysts expect the USDA to lower the US soybean yield forecast and may also lower export expectations [17] - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: The domestic short - term supply - demand surplus situation remains. Soybean meal has low valuation but low risk appetite. Rapeseed meal has high inventory pressure but may rise later due to low inventory and policy expectations [17] - Palm Oil: The import profit of domestic palm oil is more negative. The market expects Malaysia's August palm oil inventory to increase for the sixth consecutive month. However, exports are expected to be strong, and production decreased in early September. It is expected to fluctuate [18] - Soybean and Rapeseed Oil: The cost of imported oilseeds is stable and strong, and the supply - demand will shrink in the fourth quarter. Soybean oil inventory is high, and the market is optimistic. Rapeseed oil has low inventory and strong hoarding sentiment [18] - Corn: New - season corn has been slightly listed in Northeast China, and farmers are reluctant to sell at low prices. In North China, corn prices are stable, and inventory is tight. The futures market has rebounded, which is positive for the market [19] - Pigs: The spot price of pigs has rebounded weakly. Farmers' selling intention is strong, but there is also a seasonal replenishment market in September. The pig price should not be overly pessimistic in September [19]
研究所晨会观点精萃-20250910
Dong Hai Qi Huo·2025-09-10 01:01