生猪日报：期价震荡调整-20250910

Report Summary - Report Date: September 10, 2025 [1] - Author: Shi Xiangying, a pig analyst with futures qualification F03086321 and trading consultation qualification Z0019355 [5] Market Dynamics - On September 9, the number of registered live hog warehouse receipts was 428 lots. The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to the subsequent weight - reduction amplitude of live hogs. The main live hog contract (LH2511) added 547 lots in positions today, with a holding of about 78,000 lots. The highest price was 13,310 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,170 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,230 yuan/ton [2] Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live hogs is expected to increase month - by - month from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to piglet data, the slaughter volume of live hogs in the third and fourth quarters of 2025 will generally increase in a fluctuating manner. In terms of the demand side, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the fat - to - standard price difference may fluctuate and strengthen. The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight - reduction by the breeding side, incomplete release of supply pressure, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support of demand for pig prices as the third quarter is not the consumption peak season. The long - side logic includes that the breeding side has reduced weight, which is beneficial to the future market, the consumption is expected to gradually improve after the weather turns cool, and the subsequent increase in slaughter volume is limited [3] Strategy Suggestion - View: The market will fluctuate and adjust. - Core Logic: Based on sow and piglet data, the slaughter volume of live hogs may increase month - by - month until December (without considering early or delayed slaughter by the breeding side), and it is difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150 - kg hogs and standard hogs has stabilized and rebounded, and this difference is expected to continue to strengthen seasonally, which will also weaken the weight - reduction willingness of the retail breeding group and support pig prices to a certain extent. If the weak price continues, a negative cycle of "price decline → increased slaughter enthusiasm → price decline" may occur. If this cycle appears, pig prices are expected to pick up at the end of the year, and an inverse spread of 11 - 01 contracts can be considered (for reference only, not investment advice) [4] Market Overview Live Hog Slaughter Price (Yuan/Kilogram) | Region | September 9, 2025 | September 8, 2025 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | National | 13.37 | 13.48 | - 0.11 | - 0.82% | | Henan | 13.6 | 13.81 | - 0.21 | - 1.52% | | Sichuan | 13.27 | 13.36 | - 0.09 | - 0.67% | [6] Futures Price (Yuan/Ton) | Contract | September 9, 2025 | September 8, 2025 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 01 Contract | 13,655 | 13,760 | - 105 | - 0.76% | | 03 Contract | 12,950 | 13,085 | - 135 | - 1.03% | | 05 Contract | 13,420 | 13,580 | - 160 | - 1.18% | | 07 Contract | 14,125 | 14,180 | - 55 | - 0.39% | | 09 Contract | 13,150 | 13,100 | 50 | 0.38% | | 11 Contract | 13,230 | 13,305 | - 75 | - 0.56% | [6] Main Basis (Yuan/Ton) - The data for the main basis in Henan region is not available [6]