Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market experienced a collective correction on September 9, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.51%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.23%, and the ChiNext Index down 2.23%. The trading volume in the two markets shrank by 300.2 billion yuan compared to the previous day. The overall market showed a weak trend [1]. - The prices of coal and coke futures are affected by multiple factors. The consumption of coke decreased by 4.7% following the decline in molten iron. The inventory situation is mixed, with mine coking coal starting to destock (a single - week destocking of 5.48%) and coke enterprises' coke inventory continuing to accumulate (a single - week accumulation of 1.84%). The price drivers are mainly the ongoing replenishment of steel mill furnace materials, the improved demand in the peak season due to better sales of downstream building materials and hot - rolled coils, and the suppression of coal mine复产 limits by the energy bureau's follow - up spot checks on some production areas, which is generally beneficial to the supply - demand relationship of coal and coke [5]. 3. Summary by Variety [Stock Index Futures] - On September 9, the A - share market's three major indexes all declined. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3807.29 points, down 0.51%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12510.60 points, down 1.23%; the ChiNext Index closed at 2867.97 points, down 2.23%. The trading volume in the two markets was 2.1185 trillion yuan, a decrease of 300.2 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index also showed a weakening trend, closing at 4436.26, a decrease of 31.32 from the previous day [1][2]. [Coke and Coking Coal] - On September 9, the weighted index of coke was weak, closing at 1606.3, a decrease of 17.8. The weighted index of coking coal also showed a weak operation, closing at 1127.4 yuan, a decrease of 18.7. The consumption of coke decreased by 4.7% following the decline in molten iron. Mine coking coal started to destock (a single - week destocking of 5.48%), while coke enterprises' coke inventory continued to accumulate (a single - week accumulation of 1.84%). The price drivers are mainly the ongoing replenishment of steel mill furnace materials, the improved demand in the peak season due to better sales of downstream building materials and hot - rolled coils, and the suppression of coal mine复产 limits by the energy bureau's follow - up spot checks on some production areas [3][4][5]. [Zhengzhou Sugar] - Due to a large short - term decline, the US sugar rebounded on Monday. However, the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract was pressured by short - sellers and showed a slight decline during the day. At night, it rose slightly due to short - covering. A survey shows that the sugar beet production in the EU 27 countries and the UK in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 113.6 million tons, less than 1% higher than the previous estimate, with an estimated range between 103.6 million and 123.6 million tons, due to improved weather conditions in Western and Central Europe supporting the late - stage growth of crops [5]. [Rubber] - Due to the slowdown in exports, the operating rate of tire enterprises declined. Last week, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 58.7%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.08%. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 69.07%, a week - on - week decrease of 5.5%. Affected by this and the increase in natural rubber imports in August, long - position liquidation pressured the Shanghai rubber futures to fall sharply on Tuesday. Due to the large short - term decline, it entered a consolidation phase at night. In August 2025, China imported a total of 664,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a year - on - year increase of 7.8%. From January to August, the total import was 5.373 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19% [6]. [Palm Oil] - On September 9, the palm oil futures market showed a slight fluctuation, waiting for the impetus from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) monthly report on the next day. The main contract P2601 closed with a small positive line with upper and lower shadows. The highest price was 9506, the lowest was 9428, and the closing price was 9486, up 0.21% from the previous day. As of September 5, 2025 (week 36), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 619,300 tons, an increase of 9,200 tons from the previous week, a growth rate of 1.51%, and an increase of 62,900 tons compared to 556,400 tons in the same period last year, a growth rate of 11.31% [6][8]. [Soybean Meal] - On September 9, the CBOT soybean futures fluctuated. As of the week ending September 7, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 64%, higher than the market expectation of 63% but still lower than the previous period and the same period last year. With the upcoming soybean harvest in the US and the lack of Chinese purchases of new - season US soybeans, the supply pressure of US soybeans continues to increase. In the domestic market, on September 9, the soybean meal futures price fluctuated. The main contract M2601 closed at 3075 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.19%. The crushing volume of imported soybeans remains high, resulting in a large output of soybean meal. Last week, the domestic soybean meal inventory reached 1.16 million tons, a new high in nearly a year. In the past two months, the volume of imported soybeans arriving in China has exceeded expectations. With the large export potential of Brazilian soybeans and domestic reserve resources, the supply of soybeans in the fourth quarter is still strongly guaranteed, limiting the upward potential of soybean meal's long - term price, and it may continue to fluctuate. Future attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and soybean import situations [8]. [Live Pigs] - On September 9, the live pig futures price showed a weak and fluctuating trend. The main contract LH2511 closed at 13,230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.56%. Currently, the production capacity is in the concentrated realization stage. The inventory of suitable - weight standard pigs and medium - large pigs has increased, and the daily sales pressure of large - scale pig enterprises has increased, resulting in an oversupply in the market. Although the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day consumption peak seasons are approaching, the recovery of terminal consumption is slow, and it is difficult to form strong support in the short term. The supply - demand relationship remains loose, and the live pig futures price may continue to fluctuate weakly. Future attention should be paid to the pig slaughter rhythm and market demand [9]. [Shanghai Copper] - Geopolitical tensions have intensified. US President Trump said he was ready to launch the "second - stage sanctions" against Russia, which may even involve pressure on oil trade, increasing market uncertainty and suppressing the outlook for metal demand. Fundamentally, the supply of copper mines is still tight. The Panama copper mine is about to enter the environmental audit stage. Terminal consumption feedback is weak, the premium has回调 from a high level, and there is a gap between the expected peak consumption season and the actual performance, putting downward pressure on copper prices. Attention should be paid to macroeconomic data, policy changes, and dynamic adjustments in the supply - demand relationship [9]. [Cotton] - On the night of September 9, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,835 yuan/ton. On September 10, the minimum basis quotation at the Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouse of the National Cotton Trading Market was 1,190 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 112 lots compared to the previous day [9]. [Logs] - On September 9, the 2511 log futures contract opened at 806, with a minimum of 801.5, a maximum of 810, and closed at 805.5, with a daily reduction of 19 lots. The futures price rebounded and touched the 60 - day moving average of 812. Attention should be paid to the support at the 800 mark and the pressure at 812. On September 9, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged from the previous day. According to customs data on the 8th, from January to August, the import of logs and sawn timber decreased by 13.2% year - on - year. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, with a game between strong expectations and weak reality. Spot transactions are weak. Attention should be paid to the spot price during the peak season, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expectations and market sentiment on prices [10]. [Iron Ore] - On September 9, the main contract of iron ore 2601 fluctuated and rose, with a growth rate of 2.03%, and closed at 805 yuan. The global shipment volume of iron ore in this period decreased compared to the previous period, and the arrival volume also decreased slightly, resulting in a tightened supply. The molten iron output decreased significantly in stages. However, due to the current good profits of steel mills, there is an expectation of a rebound in molten iron demand after the end of the phased production restrictions. In the short term, the iron ore price is in a fluctuating trend [10]. [Asphalt] - On September 9, the main contract of asphalt 2511 fluctuated and closed higher, with a growth rate of 0.09%, and closed at 3420 yuan. Last week, the capacity utilization rate of asphalt continued to decline, and the shipment volume of asphalt manufacturers increased slightly. With the arrival of the peak season, there is an expectation of improved terminal demand, but the actual driving force is still limited. In the short term, the asphalt price will mainly fluctuate [11][12]. [Steel] - On September 9, rb2601 closed at 3132 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3352 yuan/ton. The trading volume of construction steel exceeded 110,000 tons, and the "Golden September" demand has improved, but the recovery momentum is not stable. At the same time, with the resumption of production of blast furnaces in Tangshan, the molten iron output of steel mills may remain at a high level. In addition, the prices of raw fuels have shown different trends recently, with coking coal and coke prices being weak and iron ore prices being strong. The iron ore futures led the rise in the black - series commodities, driving some steel markets to stop falling and rebound. In the short term, it may not break away from the fluctuating pattern, and attention should be paid to the actual demand in the "Golden September" and whether the supply - demand fundamentals are substantially improved [12]. [Alumina] - On September 9, ao2601 closed at 2929 yuan/ton. The downstream electrolytic aluminum enterprises have not yet entered the peak - season trading period, and the electrolytic aluminum production capacity has reached its peak, so the demand for raw materials is not sustainable, and it is difficult to stimulate the enthusiasm for purchasing alumina in the short term. In the spot market, the spot price continued to fall, the quotes of holders began to loosen, the inquiry situation of downstream electrolytic aluminum enterprises was average, and overall, they maintained just - in - time procurement. The overall trading atmosphere was dull, with more low - price transactions, but large - scale transactions were still difficult to form, and the daily trading performance was mediocre [12]. [Shanghai Aluminum] - On September 9, al2510 closed at 20,750 yuan/ton. Consumption showed signs of recovery, but the supply of electrolytic aluminum increased, and the inventory still had a slight accumulation. In the spot market, in the East China region, the market was mainly for selling, and the purchasing sentiment of downstream enterprises was average. In the Central Plains market, downstream enterprises mainly made just - in - time purchases, and the enthusiasm for receiving goods weakened. The supply side has a slight increase, and the consumption side shows marginal recovery signs, with an expectation of continued improvement in demand. However, the high aluminum price suppresses downstream consumption, and the electrolytic aluminum inventory continues to accumulate. Attention should be paid to inventory and demand changes [13].
国新国证期货早报-20250910
Guo Xin Guo Zheng Qi Huo·2025-09-10 01:25