Tianfeng Securities·2025-09-10 01:46Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The weight loss market is rapidly expanding, with over 2.6 billion people affected by overweight/obesity globally in 2020, projected to exceed 4 billion by 2035 [2][11] - GLP-1 receptor agonists are becoming the focus in diabetes and obesity treatment, with Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly leading the market [2][18] - The evolution of oral administration methods is expected to accelerate market growth, with a shift towards oral GLP-1 products [2][29] - The development of oral GLP-1 drugs faces challenges, particularly regarding safety and efficacy, which may impact market dynamics [3][12] - Data discrepancies in multinational corporations (MNCs) are likely to accelerate business development (BD) opportunities for domestic drug manufacturers [3][5] Summary by Sections Weight Loss Market Expansion - The weight loss market is continuously expanding, with Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly competing for market dominance [4][19] - The global obesity issue is worsening, with significant increases in obesity rates expected in both adults and children by 2035 [11][12] Focus on Oral Administration - There is a growing interest in oral formulations, with multiple significant transactions occurring as MNC pipeline expectations diverge [5][22] - Oral GLP-1 drugs are seen as a key area for future development, with several candidates in various clinical stages [25][35] Pipeline and Development Opportunities - The pipeline for oral GLP-1 drugs is rich, with a focus on both oral peptides and small molecules [33][35] - Key players in the oral small molecule space include Eli Lilly and Pfizer, with ongoing clinical trials and varying degrees of success [49][52] - The safety and efficacy of these drugs are critical, as seen in the mixed results from clinical trials for Orforglipron and Danuglipron [56][62]