渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.09.10）-20250910

Macro and Strategy Research - In August 2025, China's exports in USD terms grew by 4.4% year-on-year, down from 7.2% in the previous month, while imports increased by 1.3%, down from 4.1% [3] - The export structure shows a significant divergence, with exports to the US declining by 33.1%, a drop of 11.4 percentage points, while exports to the EU and ASEAN remained robust, accounting for over 34% of total exports [3][4] - Import growth is still lagging, with a notable decline in most upstream commodities except for copper, indicating that domestic demand recovery requires policy support [4] - Looking ahead, September is expected to see a slight recovery in export growth, but risks remain due to previous demand overextension [4] Fixed Income Research - From September 1 to September 7, 2025, the issuance of credit bonds decreased, with corporate bonds seeing zero issuance and other types experiencing reduced amounts [5] - The net financing amount for credit bonds was negative, with corporate bonds showing positive net financing while other types were negative [7] - The secondary market saw a decline in transaction amounts across all types of credit bonds, although yields mostly decreased, indicating a potential for structural adjustments and increased value in high-grade bonds [7] Fund Research - In the first half of 2025, central financial institutions increased their holdings in ETFs, with a significant focus on broad-based indices, particularly the CSI 300 ETF [10] - Central Huijin Asset Management increased its holdings in 12 ETF products, with an estimated total investment exceeding 210 billion yuan [10][11] - Insurance institutions showed a trend of reducing traditional broad-based ETFs while increasing allocations in growth sectors such as technology and military manufacturing [13] Financial Engineering Research - In August 2025, all major A-share indices rose, with the STAR 50 index showing the highest increase of 28% [14] - The margin trading balance reached 22,539.77 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase in investor participation in margin trading [15] - The electronic, computer, and communication sectors saw the highest net buying in margin trading, while coal and construction materials had the least [15][16] Industry Research - The steel industry is expected to see a slight increase in supply due to the lifting of environmental restrictions, with demand potentially recovering as the consumption season progresses [17] - Copper prices may be supported by tight supply and improved demand as the consumption season deepens, particularly in light of lower-than-expected US employment data [17][18] - The aluminum sector is anticipated to experience fluctuations in prices, with demand expected to improve as the consumption season progresses [18] - The gold market may see price support due to geopolitical uncertainties and expectations of US interest rate cuts [19] - The rare earth sector is projected to benefit from domestic export control relaxations and high overseas refining costs, with strategic value anticipated in the future [19]