国泰君安期货所长早读-20250910

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US non - farm employment was revised down by 911,000, far lower than the expected 682,000, the largest downward revision since 2000, increasing the pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates [7][8]. - For double - offset paper, the fundamentals are relatively oversupplied, and the low benchmark price opens up bilateral operation space. For lithium carbonate, large - scale producers' resumption of production is faster than expected, and it is in a weak operation state [9][12]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Metals 3.1.1 Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - Gold: The downward revision of non - farm employment data affects the market, and the trend strength is 1. Silver: The gold - silver ratio is rising, and the trend strength is 1 [20][24]. 3.1.2 Base Metals - Copper: Lacks a clear driving force, and the price fluctuates. The trend strength is 0 [26][28]. - Zinc: Is in a sideways consolidation. The trend strength is 0 [29]. - Lead: The price fluctuates. The trend strength is 0 [32]. - Tin: Ranges within an interval. The trend strength is 0 [34][37]. - Aluminum: Ranges within an interval. Alumina: There may still be room for decline. Cast aluminum alloy: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The trend strength of aluminum is 0, alumina is - 1, and cast aluminum alloy is 0 [38][40]. - Nickel: Runs in a narrow range. Stainless steel: There is a game between reality and expectation, and the steel price may fluctuate. The trend strength of both is 0 [41][47]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals - Lithium Carbonate: Large - scale producers' resumption of production is faster than expected, and it is in a weak operation state. The trend strength is - 2 [48][51]. - Industrial Silicon: Market sentiment has cooled, and the idea is to short at high prices. Polysilicon: Market sentiment has cooled. The trend strength of both is - 1 [53][55]. - Iron Ore: Fluctuates widely. The trend strength is 0 [56]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Both fluctuate widely. The trend strength of both is 0 [58][61]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Market sentiment causes fluctuations, and both fluctuate widely. The trend strength of both is 0 [62][64]. - Coke and Coking Coal: Expectations are volatile, and both fluctuate widely. The trend strength of both is 0 [65][66]. 3.3 Others - Double - Offset Paper: The fundamentals are relatively oversupplied, and the low benchmark price opens up bilateral operation space [9]. - Logs: Fluctuate repeatedly [68].