社会服务行业双周报：暑期出行高峰结束，促消费政策有望加码-20250910

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the social services industry, expecting it to perform better than the benchmark index in the next 6-12 months [2][48]. Core Insights - The social services sector experienced a slight decline of 0.21% during the last two trading weeks, ranking 12th among 31 industries in the Shenwan classification. Despite this, the travel market shows signs of resilience with a year-on-year increase in passenger volume [2][13]. - The report highlights the potential for further consumer stimulus policies, which are expected to enhance economic growth driven by consumption [5][30]. Summary by Sections Market Review & Industry Dynamics - The social services sector's performance was below the CSI 300 index by 2.09 percentage points, with the sector ranking 12th among 31 industries [2][13]. - The travel and scenic spots sub-sector saw a significant increase of 7.43%, while the education sub-sector declined by 6.59% [16][19]. - The overall PE (TTM) for the social services industry is reported at 37.43 times, which is at the 41.45% historical percentile [20]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong earnings growth potential in the travel chain and related industries, including Tongcheng Travel, Huangshan Tourism, and Lijiang Shares [5][41]. - It also recommends hotel brands like Junting Hotel and Jinjiang Hotel, which are expected to benefit from the recovery of business travel and increased market share post-pandemic [5][41]. - Companies in the cross-border travel market, such as China Duty Free and Wangfujing, are highlighted for their potential gains from the recovery of airport duty-free sales [5][41]. Industry Company News - The report notes the opening of new city duty-free stores in multiple cities, which is expected to boost local consumption [28]. - Jinjiang Hotels has announced plans for significant international expansion, marking a new phase in the internationalization of Chinese hotel brands [28]. - The report also mentions the surge in travel searches related to Russia following the announcement of mutual visa-free policies, indicating a potential increase in travel demand [29].