Guoxin Securities·2025-09-10 01:37Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba is "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - Alibaba has undergone multiple rounds of organizational restructuring since 2021, leading to a stable management team focused on the strategic goals of "AI + Cloud" and "Integration of Shopping and Life Services" [2][10] - The company aims to prioritize GMV growth in its e-commerce business while maintaining a stable market share, with a shift away from low-price strategies [2][26] - The global cloud market is projected to reach approximately $820 billion by 2024, with Alibaba Cloud holding about one-third of the domestic market share [3][22] Summary by Sections E-commerce Business - The e-commerce sector is expected to focus on GMV growth, with strategies to support quality brands and expand external traffic [2][26] - The company anticipates a 10% growth in CMR due to the implementation of product and technology service fees [2][22] - Despite competitive pressures leading to a decline in profit margins, Alibaba is committed to subsidizing merchants and users to achieve GMV growth [2][44] Instant Retail - The instant retail market is projected to exceed $3 trillion by 2030, representing over 16% of the overall e-commerce market [2][45] - Short-term investments in instant retail may pressure profits, but long-term prospects indicate potential contributions exceeding $1 trillion in GMV [2][55] - The collaboration between instant retail and e-commerce is crucial for enhancing market share and competitiveness [2][48] Cloud Business - The demand for cloud services is expected to grow significantly, driven by advancements in AI and large models, with Alibaba Cloud positioned as a leader in the domestic market [3][22] - The company is actively expanding its AI model and application deployment across its core products [3][22] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Alibaba from FY2026 to FY2028 are estimated at 1,064.3 billion, 1,181.7 billion, and 1,286.6 billion respectively, with adjusted net profits of 126.6 billion, 167.0 billion, and 193.8 billion [3][22]