国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20250910

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily market analysis and trend forecasts for various energy and chemical commodities, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, LLDPE, PP, caustic soda, pulp, glass, methanol, urea, styrene, soda ash, LPG, propylene, PVC, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and container shipping index (European line). Each commodity has its own short - term and medium - term trends and influencing factors [2][12][13]. 3. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - PX: Short - term rebound possible due to short - term PX device start - up decline and tight - balance pattern; long - term weak due to weak demand. Suggested trading strategies include callback long, 11 - 01 positive spread, 1 - 5 reverse spread, and cross - variety strategies [12]. - PTA: In a tight - balance supply - demand situation, but concerns about future supply increase. Basis and monthly spread are generally weak [13]. - MEG: Unilateral trend is weak, but downside space is limited. Suggested to go long at low prices [13]. Rubber - Rubber is expected to have a wide - range shock. The overall order performance of tire enterprises in September is stable and slightly stronger, but export orders still face pressure, and the overall demand is weak [14][17]. Synthetic Rubber - Short - term decline and medium - term shock. Although the fundamentals face pressure from high supply, some expectations such as the Fed's possible preventive interest rate cut and domestic anti - involution policies provide support [21]. Asphalt - Narrow - range shock. This week's production increased, factory inventory increased in some areas, and social inventory decreased in some areas due to the recovery of terminal demand [22][37]. LLDPE - Medium - term shock. PE demand is improving due to the approaching peak season of the agricultural film industry, and the supply pressure may be relieved in the East China region at the end of September [38][39]. PP - Short - term shock and long - term pressure. Short - term demand has improved, but the cost side is weak, and the supply pressure will increase in the future [42][43]. Caustic Soda - Wide - range shock. The driving force for price increase is insufficient due to problems in export and alumina markets [46][48]. Pulp - Oscillating operation. Although the external market price is firm, the domestic futures and spot markets are under pressure due to high inventory and weak downstream demand [52][56]. Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The domestic float glass market is generally stable with a slight upward trend, but the overall trading atmosphere is average [57][58]. Methanol - Oscillating operation. The upper price limit is restricted by high supply and inventory, while the lower limit is supported by the expectation of fundamental improvement and domestic anti - involution policies [60][64]. Urea - Weak operation. Short - term shock and pressure, long - term trend is weak. Although export is accelerating, it cannot make up for the weak domestic demand [65][68]. Styrene - Medium - term bearish. The cost center of crude oil has moved down, and the short - term downward space of pure benzene and styrene has opened up [69][70]. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The domestic soda ash market continues to be weak, with flexible price transactions and general downstream demand [71][73]. LPG and Propylene - LPG: Geopolitical risks are rising, and oil prices are rising. Propylene: Due to the fluctuation of supply devices, spot transactions have increased [75]. PVC - Under pressure. The supply side maintains high operation, domestic demand is weak, social inventory continues to accumulate, and there are uncertainties in export policies [84]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil: Slight rebound and short - term adjustment. Low - sulfur fuel oil: Relatively weaker than high - sulfur fuel oil, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the external spot market continues to narrow [87]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Oscillating and under pressure. The freight rate index shows a downward trend, and the market is affected by factors such as shipping capacity and demand [89].