【早间看点】209,033名油棕小农获MSPO认证路透预计25/26年美豆单产为53.3蒲/英亩-20250910

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the overnight and spot market conditions, fundamental information, supply - demand situation, macro - news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking in the agricultural and energy futures markets [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Overnight Market Conditions - Overnight closing prices and percentage changes are provided for various futures, including palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, US soybeans, etc. Also, the latest prices and percentage changes of several currency pairs are given [1] Spot Market Conditions - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes for DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are presented. CNF quotes and CNF premium changes for imported soybeans are also included [2] Important Fundamental Information - The future weather outlook for US soybean - producing states shows that temperatures are generally above normal and precipitation is unevenly distributed. Frost in the US Midwest may lead to a decline in soybean and corn yields [3][5] - As of August 31, 209,033 oil palm small - scale farmers in Malaysia, covering 747,012 hectares of plantations, have obtained MSPO certification [7] - Reuters predicts that the US 2025/26 soybean yield per acre will be 53.3 bushels, with a production of 4.271 billion bushels and an ending inventory of 288 million bushels. The global 2025/26 soybean ending inventory is expected to be 124.77 million tons [8] - Brazil's September soybean exports are expected to reach 7.43 million tons, and soybean meal exports are expected to be 2.11 million tons [8] - As of September 7, EU 2025/26 palm oil, soybean, and rapeseed imports have decreased compared to last year, while soybean meal imports have increased [9] - Ukraine's rapeseed exports may be suspended for at least a week due to customs document chaos after a 10% export tariff [9] - Canada's rapeseed inventory has decreased, while industrial use and exports have increased [9] - The Baltic Dry Index reached a more than one - month high [10] Domestic Supply - Demand - On September 9, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 78% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the oil mill startup rate increased [12] - As of September 9, the national soybean oil port inventory increased by 20,000 tons compared to the previous week [12] - On September 9, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" decreased, and the prices of some agricultural products such as pork and beef also decreased [12] Macro - News - International: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September and October is high. The initial value of the US 2025 non - farm employment benchmark change is - 911,000. The US red - book retail sales year - on - year growth rate is 6.6%. The US NFIB small - business confidence index reached a new high in 2025. The US API crude oil inventory is 1.25 million barrels [14] - Domestic: On September 9, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted downward. The central bank conducted 247 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 8.7 billion yuan [16] Fund Flows - On September 9, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 3.823 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net capital inflow of 2.031 billion yuan, while stock index futures and treasury bond futures had net outflows [19] Arbitrage Tracking - Not provided in the content