纯苯、苯乙烯日报：纯苯承压震荡，苯乙烯反弹受限-20250910

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pure benzene market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term, with its medium - and long - term trend depending on the continuous rebound of crude oil and the fulfillment of imports. The benzene - ethylene market will remain range - bound, and attention should be paid to the downward risk after inventory realization [2][3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary Fundamental Information - On September 9, the main contract of benzene - ethylene closed down 0.21% at 7062 yuan/ton, with a basis of 33 (-5 yuan/ton); the main contract of pure benzene closed down 0.12% at 6006 yuan/ton. The closing price of Brent crude oil was 62.3 US dollars/barrel (+0.4 US dollars/barrel), and the main contract of WTI crude oil closed at 66.0 US dollars/barrel (+0.5/barrel). The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5910 yuan/ton (-5 yuan/ton) [2] - The inventory of benzene - ethylene was 19.7 million tons (+1.8 million tons), a month - on - month increase of 9.8%. The inventory of pure benzene at ports was 14.9 million tons (+1.1 million tons), a month - on - month increase of 8.0% [2] - In September, there will be maintenance of benzene - ethylene plants, and the supply is expected to decrease. Currently, the weekly output of benzene - ethylene is 37.6 million tons (+0.8 million tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate is 79.7% (+1.7%) [2] - The changes in the operating rates of downstream 3S varied. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of EPS was 52.5% (-5.8%), the capacity utilization rate of ABS was 69.0% (-1.8%), and the capacity utilization rate of PS was 61.0% (+1.1%) [2] Views - Pure benzene: Recently, the pure benzene market has been in a weak and volatile state due to the game between cost and supply - demand. Although the medium - and long - term supply of international crude oil is expected to be loose, short - term supply is restricted. The increase in naphtha prices supports the cost of pure benzene. However, the demand is lackluster, and the subsequent supply pressure cannot be ignored. Overall, the supply - demand contradiction remains unresolved, and the rebound is limited [2] - Benzene - ethylene: After a seven - day decline, the benzene - ethylene market rebounded due to short - covering and plant maintenance. But the overall pressure is still significant. The supply is expected to increase in the future, the demand is weak, and the cost support may be weakened in the medium term. The rebound space is limited, and it maintains a range - bound trend [3] 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring - Benzene - ethylene and pure benzene prices: On September 9, the main futures contract of benzene - ethylene decreased by 0.21% compared to the previous day, and the spot price decreased by 0.08%. The main futures contract of pure benzene decreased by 0.12%, and the East China spot price decreased by 0.08%. The prices of pure benzene in South Korea FOB, the United States FOB, and China CFR remained unchanged. The price of Brent crude oil increased by 0.63%, and the price of WTI crude oil increased by 0.79%. The price of naphtha remained unchanged [5] - Benzene - ethylene and pure benzene production and inventory: From August 29 to September 5, the production of benzene - ethylene in China increased by 2.14%, and the production of pure benzene increased by 0.31%. The port inventory of benzene - ethylene in Jiangsu increased by 9.78%, the factory inventory of benzene - ethylene in China increased by 1.67%, and the port inventory of pure benzene in China increased by 7.97% [6] - Operating rate: From August 29 to September 5, the capacity utilization rate of benzene - ethylene increased by 1.67%, the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam increased by 1.03%, the capacity utilization rate of phenol decreased by 0.151%, and the capacity utilization rate of aniline increased by 0.41%. Among the downstream of benzene - ethylene, the capacity utilization rate of EPS decreased by 5.82%, the capacity utilization rate of ABS decreased by 1.80%, and the capacity utilization rate of PS increased by 1.10% [7] 3. Industry News - The United States imposed high tariffs on some Asian chemical products, leading to adjustments in the global petrochemical industry structure. South Korea reduced its ethylene cracking capacity, and some European factories closed due to high energy costs [8] - In the first half of 2025, the overall losses of China's refining and chemical industry continued to intensify, with the total loss amount increasing by about 8.3% compared to the same period last year, and the loss in the refining and chemical sector exceeding 9 billion yuan [8] - With the accelerated implementation of private refining and chemical integration projects, China's pure benzene production capacity has formed a pattern with East China as the core and South China and Northeast China developing in coordination [8] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including pure benzene price, benzene - ethylene price, benzene - ethylene - pure benzene price difference, SM imported pure benzene cost vs. domestic pure benzene cost, benzene - ethylene port inventory, benzene - ethylene factory inventory, pure benzene port inventory, ABS inventory, PS inventory, caprolactam weekly capacity utilization rate, phenol weekly capacity utilization rate, and aniline weekly capacity utilization rate [9][14][19]