2025年8月物价点评：8月通胀：冷暖的微妙信号

Inflation Overview - In August 2025, China's PPI year-on-year growth rate was -2.9%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The CPI year-on-year growth rate was -0.4%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[1] PPI Analysis - The narrowing of the PPI decline since March is notable, with August's PPI year-on-year growth improving from -3.6% in July to -2.9%[2] - The recovery of PPI is supported by supply-side policies and a low base effect from the previous year, which is expected to continue influencing PPI positively in September[2] - August marked the first month since July where PPI month-on-month growth turned positive, rising from -0.1% to 0.1%[3] CPI Insights - The CPI's decline contrasts sharply with PPI's recovery, primarily driven by food inflation, particularly in the pork market, which saw a decrease in wholesale prices[4] - Core CPI, excluding food prices, rose by 0.9% year-on-year, marking four consecutive months of increase, influenced by consumption policies and rising international gold prices[4][5] Market Dynamics - The "anti-involution" policies have effectively reduced price pressures in the upstream industries, contributing to the stabilization of PPI[3] - Marginal improvements in midstream prices are observed, although downstream PPI remains weak, indicating challenges in demand recovery and price transmission[3] Risk Factors - Future risks include potential policy shortcomings, unexpected changes in the domestic economic landscape, and fluctuations in export dynamics[6]