2025年8月CPI和PPI数据点评兼债市观点：CPI和PPI均环比持平-20250910

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In August 2025, both CPI and PPI were flat month - on - month. CPI decreased year - on - year, while core CPI increased year - on - year. PPI's year - on - year decline narrowed, and its month - on - month decline stopped [1][2]. - Regarding interest - rate bonds, since August 2025, the yield of treasury bonds has shown a significant divergence, with the short - end relatively stable and the long - end rising. Given the current loose liquidity, one should be optimistic about pure bonds, and the fluctuation center of the 10Y treasury bond yield is 1.7% [3][26]. - For convertible bonds, from August 25th to the present, convertible bonds have underperformed underlying stocks and are in a stage of high - level valuation compression. In the long run, convertible bonds are still relatively high - quality assets, and opportunities for allocation emerge after short - term declines [3][31]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Event - On September 10, 2025, the National Bureau of Statistics released the CPI and PPI data for August 2025. In August, CPI decreased by 0.4% year - on - year (previous value: 0%), core CPI increased by 0.9% year - on - year (previous value: 0.8%); PPI decreased by 2.9% year - on - year (previous value: - 3.6%) [1][6]. 3.2 Comment 3.2.1 CPI - In August 2025, CPI's year - on - year growth rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points compared to July, and the month - on - month growth rate was 0%. Both the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates declined compared to the previous month. This month's CPI was within the seasonal fluctuation range [2][7]. - Structurally, food prices' year - on - year decline continued to widen (year - on - year: - 4.3%, previous value: - 1.6%), energy prices continued to fall (transport fuel: year - on - year - 7.1%, month - on - month - 0.9%), service prices' year - on - year growth rate increased (up 0.6% in August, 0.1 percentage points higher than July), and the year - on - year increase of core CPI continued to expand for the fourth consecutive month (up 0.9% in August, previous value: 0.8%) [2][8][11]. 3.2.2 PPI - In August, PPI's year - on - year growth rate was - 2.9% (July: - 3.6%), with the decline narrowing; the month - on - month growth rate was 0% (July: - 0.2%), ending eight consecutive months of negative growth [2][16]. - Structurally, the year - on - year growth rate of production materials prices was - 3.2% (July: - 4.3%), with the decline narrowing; the year - on - year growth rate of living materials prices was - 1.7% (July: - 1.6%), with a slight expansion in the decline. Among production materials, the year - on - year declines of mining, raw materials, and processing industries all narrowed, and the month - on - month growth rate of mining industry prices increased significantly [20]. - Looking forward, with the continuous implementation of the "anti - involution" policy, the current year - on - year PPI growth rate may be at the bottom and on the rise, but there is obvious structural differentiation, and the price increase of upstream mining has not been significantly transmitted to mid - and downstream industrial products [2][20]. 3.3 Bond Market Views 3.3.1 Interest - rate Bonds - Since August 2025, the yield of treasury bonds has shown a significant divergence. The short - end has fluctuated little (the average yield of 1Y treasury bonds in July was 1.36%, and from August 1st to September 9th, it was 1.37%), while the long - end has increased significantly (the average yields of 10Y and 30Y treasury bonds from August 1st to September 9th increased by 9bp and 15bp respectively compared to July). Currently, the sentiment in the interest - rate bond market is still weak. Looking ahead, due to the loose liquidity, one should be optimistic about pure bonds, and the fluctuation center of the 10Y treasury bond yield is 1.7% [26]. 3.3.2 Convertible Bonds - As of September 9, 2025, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by 15.2%, slightly lower than the equity market. Currently, convertible bonds' valuations are close to or exceed historical highs, so adjustments are inevitable. From August 25th to the present, convertible bonds have underperformed underlying stocks and are in a stage of high - level valuation compression. In the long run, given the expectation of a slow - bull equity market and the pattern where the demand in the convertible bond market exceeds supply, convertible bonds are still relatively high - quality assets, and opportunities for allocation emerge after short - term declines [31].