2025年Auto-ABS存续期表现：证券信用风险持续下降，未来资产将更趋多元化

Market Overview - In the first seven months of 2025, the issuance scale of Auto-ABS decreased to 107.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 11.06%[4] - A total of 70 Auto-ABS products were issued, with 49 being exchange-traded ABS, accounting for 54.75% of the total issuance[4] - Credit ABS issuance dropped significantly, with 11 products totaling 36.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 48.03%[4] Issuer Concentration - The number of issuers increased slightly, with 41 issuers in total, including 27 financing leasing companies, which surpassed automotive finance companies in issuance scale[6] - The largest issuer, a Ping An financing leasing company, accounted for 22.12% of the total issuance, while the top five issuers collectively held 75.82% of the market[6] Performance Metrics - As of July 2025, the cumulative default rate for Auto-ABS products was low, with financing leasing companies averaging 2.95% and automotive finance companies at 0.63%[12] - The overall cumulative early repayment rate was 7.05%, with automotive finance companies at 7.39% and financing leasing companies at 6.72%[17] Credit Risk Assessment - The credit risk of Auto-ABS products has been decreasing, supported by initial over-collateralization and dual deleveraging effects during the product's lifespan[22] - The majority of Auto-ABS products maintained stable credit performance, with over 90% of projects showing actual cumulative default rates aligning closely with predicted rates[16] Future Outlook - The Auto-ABS issuance scale is expected to face challenges due to ongoing price wars in the automotive industry and weak consumer demand, although short-term improvements may arise from policy support[21] - Automotive finance companies are diversifying their offerings, including leasing and second-hand vehicle financing, to stimulate demand and expand their asset base[23]