国金期货菜粕期货周报-20250910

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - During the week of 20250901 - 0905, rapeseed meal prices showed a volatile upward trend. ICE canola futures hit a five - month low due to abundant harvest expectations and demand concerns. The market is focused on the new - season canola production forecast and export prospects in the producing areas. Rapeseed meal spot quotes rose slightly, and traders still had a price - holding mentality. However, the supply of rapeseed meal is loose, and it is expected to continue the volatile trend. [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Contract Price: The rapeseed meal futures price showed a volatile trend during the week. As of Friday, the main contract rapeseed meal 2601 (rm2601) closed at 2550 points, with a maximum of 2556 points and a minimum of 2488 points. The position was 396,574 lots, a decrease of 17,596 lots from last week, and the trading volume was 1.6495 million lots, a decrease of 225,100 lots from last week. [3] - Variety Market: In the weekly rapeseed meal futures market, each contract had different price changes. The total position of the variety was 646,488 lots, and the trading volume was 2,030,963 lots. [5] - Related Market: Rapeseed meal options had a trading volume of 253,751 lots and a total position of 135,979 lots during the week, with an increase of 6,254 lots in the position. The total number of exercises during the week was 0 lots. [7] 3.2 Spot Market - Spot Market Conditions: During the week, the rapeseed meal spot price showed an overall upward trend. The expected reduction in supply and the seasonal growth in demand were the main factors driving the price increase. The futures market's upward expectation also had a positive impact on the spot price. The rapeseed meal benchmark price was 2601.67 yuan/ton on September 1 and 2638.33 yuan/ton on September 5. [9] - Basis Data: The rapeseed meal basis showed a strengthening trend during the week, mainly affected by the strong demand in the spot market, the expected tight supply, and the upward trend in the futures market. The basis price of the rapeseed meal rm2601 contract fluctuated between 88.33 yuan/ton and 123.33 yuan/ton. [10] - Registered Warehouse Receipts: According to the warehouse receipt daily report of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, as of Friday, the total rapeseed meal warehouse receipts were 6761, with a cumulative increase of 351 during the week. [11] 3.3 Influencing Factors - Latest News: The policy of the Ministry of Commerce imposing high tariffs on Canadian canola has had a profound impact on the rapeseed meal market. This policy not only restricts the import of Canadian canola but also leads to a shortage of domestic canola supply, thereby driving up the rapeseed meal price. In early September, the overall domestic rapeseed meal supply was in a loose state but there was an expectation of tightening in the long - term. On the one hand, the crushing rhythm of coastal oil mills slowed down, and the supply of canola raw materials decreased relatively. On the other hand, although the rapeseed meal inventory has recovered, the overall inventory level is still at a low level. In September, aquaculture is in the peak season, and rapeseed meal, as an important component of aquaculture feed, has a seasonal increase in demand, which supports the rapeseed meal price to a certain extent and promotes its increase. [12] - Technical Analysis: During the week, the rapeseed meal rm2601 contract showed an overall volatile upward trend. The K - line pattern closed with 4 positive days during the week, indicating strong long - side power in the market. The price successively broke through the 5 - day, 10 - day, and 20 - day moving averages. As of Friday, the closing price stood above the 20 - day moving average, and the short - term moving average system was in a long - side arrangement. Attention should be paid to the pressure formed by the previous price high. [13][14] 3.4 Market Outlook - Overall, the price of the rapeseed meal futures rm2601 contract showed an upward trend during the week. The K - line pattern and technical indicators both showed that the market was in a long - side trend. In the short term, market sentiment is optimistic, and capital is flowing in. The future price is expected to show a volatile and strengthening trend. Attention should be paid to the possible callback risk in the market and the impact of external factors such as the US soybean market and the domestic oil mill crushing volume on the rapeseed meal futures price. [16]